432
FXUS63 KILX 131755
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A PEORIA TO MATTOON
LINE...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN IL TODAY. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR
AREAS WEST OF A HENRY TO CHARLESTON TO OLNEY LINE. THERE COULD BE
SOME MORNING CONVECTION FROM A DECAYING MCS TRAVELING ACROSS MO
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING SHOWERS/T'STORMS IS QUITE LOW
AS THE SHORT-RANGE, CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE HRRR HAS SOME SHOWERS/T'STORMS SOUTH OF I-74/ WEST OF I-
57 BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE NAMNEST KEEPS THE MORNING ROUND OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD OF CONCERN TODAY IS THE
DAMAGING WIND RISK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT SOME SMALL
TO NEAR SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. MUCAPE VALUES ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG, BUT THE INSTABILITY QUICKLY WANES
AFTER SUNSET. DCAPE IS AROUND 800-1200 J/KG. BULK SHEAR OF 35-45
KNOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE
LINE OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE LAST WEEK AND MANY RIVERS ARE ALREADY IN
FLOOD. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE TO
THEM WITH PWATS OF 1.6-2.0 INCHES. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE IN THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE 2 ROUNDS, BASED OFF THE HRRR. ROUND ONE IS
FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-74, MOVING EAST STARTING AT 17Z, AND EXITING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 00Z. THE SECOND ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING AT 00Z, EXITING AROUND 10Z TOMORROW MORNING.
BEYOND TONIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETS UP OVER THE REGION,
GIVING US A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM THE HOT AND ACTIVE WEATHER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S BY MIDWEEK INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES (70-90%) ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A KMQB TO KBMI LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS, HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT KBMI THROUGH 19Z AND
PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AT BOTH KSPI AND KDEC THROUGH 22Z. CEILINGS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR, BUT HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOST PREVALENT.
HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR AT KPIA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
RAISING CEILINGS BACK TO LOW VFR. THE NEXT AVIATION FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LATER AND SHOWN LESS
AREAL COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON THE 12Z HRRR, HAVE
GONE WITH TEMPO THUNDER AT KPIA/KBMI BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z, AND A
PROB30 AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. ONCE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
PASSES, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL BAND OF
MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT, HAVE
RETURNED TO VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIA BY 12Z AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST
AT KCMI BY 16Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...BARNES
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