761
FXUS63 KILX 131942
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
242 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF A PEORIA TO MATTOON LINE TONIGHT...WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- AFTER A BRIEF LULL, STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KANSAS CITY...WHILE A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE
FURTHER NORTHWEST, A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN IOWA. WHILE CAMS HAVE
GENERALLY NOT HANDLED THE PRESENT CONVECTION VERY WELL TODAY,
THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR TREND TOWARD LESS STORM COVERAGE WITH
FROPA TONIGHT. REGIONAL MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
LESS THAN 30KT. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES RISING TO
2000-2500J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA/NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AFTER 23Z/6PM AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACH THE LOWER 70S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS, THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
HAS BEEN SEEN BY THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS, INSTABILITY WILL
RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
TIED TO A 40-45KT 850MB JET FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS MISSOURI.
AS SUCH, THINK A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK INTO
THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY AFTER 02Z/9PM ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE LINE ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD, IT WILL
QUICKLY LOSE STEAM AND THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HIGHLIGHTS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE CONTINUED INSTABILITY WELL AFTER DARK. FURTHER NORTHEAST
IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) REMAINS IN
PLACE ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF A PEORIA TO MATTOON LINE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LOW-END DAMAGING WIND RISK LATER THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT, WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS REMAINING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER TO THE EAST, THE SHOWERS WILL END AND SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE BOARD BY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, A PERIOD OF COOL/DRY WEATHER
WILL BE ON TAP SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
AS THE HIGH DEPARTS, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LIMITED DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE AVAILABLE, BUT WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO WARRANT
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS (40-60% CHANCE) BY PEAK HEATING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING AFTER THAT AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL SPREAD AT THAT TIME RANGE, SO THE
EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNKNOWN. HOWEVER, BOTH THE 12Z JUN 13
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE WARM FRONT,
RESULTING IN A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MOST LIKELY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE BOUNDARY, BUT BOTH MODELS INDICATE A HIGHLY UNSTABLE/SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS POSSIBLE. AS SUCH, SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A LARGE SWATH OF
THE MIDWEST INCLUDING ALL OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WITH A
15-30% CHANCE FOR SEVERE. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A KMQB TO KBMI LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS, HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT KBMI THROUGH 19Z AND
PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AT BOTH KSPI AND KDEC THROUGH 22Z. CEILINGS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR, BUT HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR ACROSS THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOST PREVALENT.
HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR AT KPIA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
RAISING CEILINGS BACK TO LOW VFR. THE NEXT AVIATION FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LATER AND SHOWN LESS
AREAL COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. BASED ON THE 12Z HRRR, HAVE
GONE WITH TEMPO THUNDER AT KPIA/KBMI BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z, AND A
PROB30 AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. ONCE THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
PASSES, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL BAND OF
MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT, HAVE
RETURNED TO VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIA BY 12Z AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST
AT KCMI BY 16Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page