389
FXUS63 KILX 161055
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
555 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR EAST OF
I-55 (TIMING: DAYTIME TODAY), EAST OF I-55, AND A MARGINAL
RISK THAT ENCOMPASSES KNOX COUNTY OFF TO THE WEST (TIMING:
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING).
- WEDNESDAY, THERE IS AN MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4 OF 5) ALONG AND
NEAR I-72/DANVILLE AND AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OVER
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY PLAN, AND STAY WEATHER AWARE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
- BREEZY WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WE ARE RE-ENTERING A BUSY, ACTIVE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE RETURNED FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW AND SOME WILL PACK A DECENT
PUNCH WITHIN THEM. BEFORE WE UNPACK THE DETAILS OF THE NEXT TWO
DAYS, LET'S TALK GENERAL WEATHER FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
WILL BE PLEASANT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST, WITH AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 HAVING HIGHS NEARING 90. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
ARE GOING TO BE QUITE BREEZY, GUSTS UP TO 30-45 MPH, AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, AND WILL PULL UP VERY MOIST DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD.
TODAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LOB SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA,
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR EASTERN IL (RISK: DAYTIME
TODAY), EAST OF I-55, AND A MARGINAL RISK THAT ENCOMPASSES KNOX
COUNTY OFF TO THE WEST (RISK: OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING). THE
HAZARDS OF CONCERN ARE GUSTY (UP TO 60 MPH) WINDS AND NEAR
SEVERE/SEVERE HAIL. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TODAY. CURRENT TIMING HAS THE FRONT
ENTERING WEST-CENTRAL IL BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST BY 22Z-00Z THIS EVENING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW
WIDESPREAD OF COVERAGE THERE WILL BE TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
MOST PEOPLE WILL LIKELY SEE NOTHING FROM TODAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE RRFS INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY PASSAGE WITH SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THE HRRR AND NAMNEST SHOW A MORE SOLID
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT DIFFERENT DEGREES OF
COVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY, AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS BEING FORECAST. SPC HAS
INCREASED AREAS ALONG AND NEAR I-72/DANVILLE TO A MODERATE RISK
(LEVEL 4 OF 5) WITH AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OVER (BASICALLY)
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT FROM TODAY WILL LIFT
BACK UP NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, LIFTING BETTER MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S AND PWATS ~2 INCHES) INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL. THERE
IS A MORNING ROUND (TIMING: ~12Z-19Z) OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT, THAT IF A SUPERCELL CAN LATCH ONTO THE WARM FRONT,
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE CONCERN FOR THE MORNING ROUND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL GET. AS OF NOW, GUIDANCE SHOWS IT
LIFTING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-74 AND I-80. IF THE WARM FRONT DOESN'T
GET AS FAR NORTH AS I-80, THEN THE THREAT (MODERATE RISK) COULD BE
PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON
(TIMING: ~20Z-06Z). THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY VOLATILE. CAPE
VALUES 3000 J/KG OR GREATER, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 55-65 KNOTS,
AND SRH 0-1 KM ~200-300 M2/S2. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START
OF THE AFTERNOON ROUND, BUT QUICKLY EVOLVING INTO A FAST MOVING QLCS
WIND EVENT WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES. ALL HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY HERE,
WITH SOME POTENTIALLY BEING SIGNIFICANT (EF2+ INTENSITY, 75+ MPH
WIND GUSTS, 2+ INCH HAIL). THESE STORMS ARE GOING TO BE BOOKING IT,
WITH STORM MOTIONS NEARLY DUE EAST AT 50-60 KNOTS.
WPC HAS MAINTAINED AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HIGH-END SLIGHT RISK FOR
WEDNESDAY. PWATS LOOK TO BE AROUND 1.8-2.1 INCHES. THE STORMS WOULD
LIKELY HAVE TORRENTIAL RAIN WITHIN THEM, BUT WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY
FAST, WHICH WOULD HOPEFULLY HELP CURB THE FLOODING THREAT. WITH MANY
RIVERS/STREAMS ALREADY AT OR NEAR FLOOD AND SATURATED SOILS,
FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS COMES
SUNDAY BUT WE NEED TO SURVIVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DETAILS
CAN BE CLARIFIED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME
STRONG) THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE OF STORMS ISN'T GREAT, SO EXPRESSED THAT WITH A PROB30
AT SPI/DEC/BMI. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER FOR PIA AND CMI.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO START, THEN WILL SHIFT WEST
MID MORNING, GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS TODAY. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHERLY AGAIN, ALTHOUGH BECOMING LIGHT BEFORE THE
SHIFT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...COPPLE
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