855
FXUS63 KILX 220631
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
131 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES START OFF THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL, THEN TREND ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
- QUIET WEATHER WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT SEVERE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STEADY DIMINISHING TREND FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR OUT
THE LOW CLOUDS, WITH THESE PROCESSES BRINGING CLEARING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THE
CLOUD TRENDS, WITH MID-UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST CWA, TO LOWER
70S IN EAST CENTRAL AND SE IL WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON LONGER.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL GUST 15-25 MPH, HIGHEST OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, PRODUCING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES, SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY, AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PASSES TO THE EAST.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES AN ACTIVE, PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH TWO DISTINCT WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING THE MIDWEST. THE
FIRST SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER, DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE IS LACKING AND WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE QUITE LOW. NBM'S
ADVERTISED 30-50% POPS, WITH SCATTERED STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING LOOK APPROPRIATE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTHERN IL ON
THURSDAY, THEN SLOWLY WORKING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT SPEED OF THIS
PROCESS IS STILL IN QUESTION, MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE MOST
FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WHEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. ML/AI PRODUCTS INDICATE A LOW (5-15%) RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE BOUNDARY LIFTS TO OUR
NORTH, A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST NBM SHOWS
HIGHS AROUND 90 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
TERMINALS FOLLOWING A STORM SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST,
LINGERING LOW CIGS, AND MVFR VSBY IN BR AND -SHRA WILL
GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA AS WELL, HOWEVER IT APPEARS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
POINTS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS RESULTING IN MVFR BY 14Z-16Z.
WINDS BECOMING N 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS BY AROUND
08Z, TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 20Z, AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY 00Z-03Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...25
DISCUSSION...25
AVIATION...37
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