912
FXUS63 KILX 221537
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1037 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES START OFF THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL, THEN TREND ABOVE
NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
- QUIET WEATHER WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE LATE THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN PRETTY LOCKED IN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE, STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BREAK UP AND ERODE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S LOOKING LIKE IT WILL
BE A SLOW PROCESS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOWER CLEARING, HAVE NUDGED UP SKY COVER UP
IN THE GRIDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA TODAY. THE MORE CLOUDINESS
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS A BUT COOLER, SO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN JUST A
BIT.
- IZZI (WFO LOT)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT SEVERE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE A
STEADY DIMINISHING TREND FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR OUT
THE LOW CLOUDS, WITH THESE PROCESSES BRINGING CLEARING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THE
CLOUD TRENDS, WITH MID-UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST CWA, TO LOWER
70S IN EAST CENTRAL AND SE IL WHERE CLOUDS HANG ON LONGER.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL GUST 15-25 MPH, HIGHEST OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING.
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, PRODUCING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES, SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY, AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PASSES TO THE EAST.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES AN ACTIVE, PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WITH TWO DISTINCT WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSSING THE MIDWEST. THE
FIRST SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER, DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE IS LACKING AND WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE QUITE LOW. NBM'S
ADVERTISED 30-50% POPS, WITH SCATTERED STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING LOOK APPROPRIATE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTHERN IL ON
THURSDAY, THEN SLOWLY WORKING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT SPEED OF THIS
PROCESS IS STILL IN QUESTION, MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE MOST
FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WHEN SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. ML/AI PRODUCTS INDICATE A LOW (5-15%) RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER THE BOUNDARY LIFTS TO OUR
NORTH, A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST NBM SHOWS
HIGHS AROUND 90 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND 14-16Z. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TERMINALS RETURNING TO VFR FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 19-21Z.
NNE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS MORNING NEAR 20 KT. GUSTS WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES, THEN GO LIGHT
UNDER 10 KT THIS EVENING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...25
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...25
AVIATION...25
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