735
FXUS63 KILX 222320
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
620 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESUME
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIME LIKELY BE DRY.
- AFTER A COOL START TO THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE-END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY SLOW TO CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA, LEADING TO FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF SUMMER. DRIER AIR, HIGH SUN ANGLE, AND
MIXING SHOULD CONTINUE TO CHIP AWAY AT THE STRATUS FROM NW TO SE THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. OPTED TO REMAIN OPTIMISTIC SHOWING SKIES
CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. THE LIGHT
WINDS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A COOL NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MASS AND SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK REBOUND TEMPS TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
OVER WISCONSIN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS. MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE PRETTY MEAGER AND THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC
ASCENT LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT STILL CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTHWEST OF I-55 CORRIDOR.
AS PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE LOWER 48 LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEDNESDAY'S FRONT
TO LOSE STEAM AND LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
AMPLITUDE, DIFFICULT TO PREDICT DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THOUGH
THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE THE IMPETUS FOR OCCASIONAL MCS
ACTIVITY RIDING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BOTH BEEN HINTING AT ONE SUCH CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS GFES AND EPS MEMBERS
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES.
GIVEN THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, IF A
STRONGER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE WERE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD EXIST. WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY FOR THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS
THIS FAR OUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS, BUT THE
LATE WEEK COULD TURN MORE ACTIVE AGAIN.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN DEPICTING
AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WHILE MCS ACTIVITY COULD TEMPORARILY DELAY THE BOUNDARY FROM
LIFTING NORTHWARD, IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET NORTH
OF THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SUGGEST CHANCES FOR
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND PARTICULARLY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- IZZI (WFO LOT)
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW TO SCT 4-6K DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...WFO LOT
DISCUSSION...WFO LOT
AVIATION...NMA
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