486
FXUS63 KILX 241658
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1158 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (15-40% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A I-72/DANVILLE LINE ON FRIDAY. THERE IS
ALSO A MARGINAL RISK (5-15% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AND BRING
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE AREA BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NBM INDICATES AN 80-100% CHANCE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON, THAT WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SO
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT UNTIL EARLY MORNING. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS, BUT DIFFER WITH AMOUNT OF PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE
BOUNDARY TO BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY BY TOMORROW, SOMEWHERE SOUTH
OF I-72 AND NORTH OF I-64. THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SERIES OF WAVES/LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO EXCESSIVE AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S AND MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
PW VALUES OVER 1.75 INCHES WITH A NARROW BAND OF VALUES OVER 2
INCHES. WITH THESE VALUES, WOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS ALREADY BEING FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A I-72/DANVILLE LINE. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT ALSO SOME TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BUT THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE PRECIP WILL BE LIGHTER ON SATURDAY AND
WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHING EAST THE PRECIP SHOULD
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. UNFORTUNATELY,
THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO BRING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE
AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S AND COULD
POSSIBLY GET HIGHER WITH ALL THE WATER EVAPORATING FROM THE
SURFACE. HIGH TEMPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 90S AND
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF 80-100% OF THIS
OCCURRING MON THROUGH WED OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COMBINATION OF HEAT
AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OVER 100 FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE IS THE LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE AND
COVERAGE REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR A MERE PROB30 MENTION, AND
PROBABILITIES BECOME EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ILZ052-054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...AUTEN
DISCUSSION...AUTEN
AVIATION...MJA
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