509
FXUS63 KILX 252311
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
611 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY: SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING A THREAT
OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A SHELBYVILLE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. THERE IS A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SAME AREA (SLIGHT RISK SOUTH OF
I-70), WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT WILL SHIFT TO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-74.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING: MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
BRING A HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL EXCEED 1.5 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO PARIS LINE WHERE A FLOOD
WATCH IS POSTED.
- DANGEROUS HEAT NEXT WEEK: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL CONSISTENTLY BE AROUND OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
WE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH FROM SCOTT, MORGAN, SANGAMON,
MACON, MOULTRIE, DOUGLAS AND EDGAR COUNTIES SOUTH FROM 4 PM
TODAY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY. BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE LPMM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
POCKETS OF 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 6 HOURS OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WPC HAS
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH FRI
NIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL, WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
SOUTHERN CWA/SOUTHEAST IL. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY IF
FLOOD WATCH IS NEEDED TO EXPAND ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES
NORTHWARD. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR SOUTH OF AN EFFINGHAM TO
ROBINSON LINE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS WEST OF PARIS IN
SOUTHERN EDGAR COUNTY. TROPICAL LIKE PW VALUES ARE 1.5-1.75
INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST IL.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS, WE HAVE MARGINAL RISKS OF SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
SHELBYVILLE TO TERRE HAUTE LINE FOR 5 TO LESS THAN 10% RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SAME AREA, WITH
THE SLIGHT RISK SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE THERE IS A 5% TO LESS THAN
10% RISK OF TORNADOES. THE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE CELLS WE
HAD IN SOUTHEAST IL THIS AFTERNOON ARE LOCATED IN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES 1500-2200 J/KG FROM SHELBY AND EDGAR
COUNTIES SOUTH. MEANWHILE HAVE 40-50 KT BULK SHEAR VALUES IN
EAST CENTRAL IL AND THIS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 30-40
KTS INTO MID EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CO TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO EAST
CENTRAL/SE IL FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL IL. HAVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM SE TO NE DURING OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND DIMINISHING DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES LIKELY
REACH 1.75-2.1 INCHES ON FRIDAY SUPPORTING HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN SOUTHEAST IL ALSO SUPPORTS SEVERE WX RISK
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONVECTION CHANCES TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY.
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OVER NE CWA.
MAIN WEATHER STORY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
BUILDING SUNDAY/MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS CLIMB FROM LOWER 80S SATURDAY TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN HOTTER MONDAY THROUGH THU WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND OR ABOVE
105F. WE WILL LIKELY NEED HEAT HEADLINES NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AS THE WARM FRONT SETTLES OVER THE AREA, SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY FRIDAY,
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING CEILINGS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DROP THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AREAWIDE FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
FRIDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS ONCE PRECIP ENDS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ049>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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