064
FXUS63 KILX 262328
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
628 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
SHELBY, MOULTRIE, DOUGLAS AND EDGAR COUNTIES UNTIL 1 PM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
SCOTT, MORGAN, SANGAMON, MACON AND CHRISTIAN COUNTIES. UP TO
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER THE FLOOD WATCH AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
SOUTHEAST IL.
- THE FIRST PROLONGED HEATWAVE OF THE SUMMER WILL ARRIVE NEXT
WEEK, WHEN AIR TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER
100S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 100 TO 110 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
*** LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST IL ***
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR SCOTT, MORGAN, SANGAMON,
MACON AND CHRISTIAN COUNTIES AND CONTINUED UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY
FROM SHELBY, MOULTRIE, DOUGLAS AND EDGAR COUNTIES SOUTH.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GENERALLY
A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OVER CENTRAL IL WITH SOME SPOTS ONLY
GETTING UP TO A TENTH INCH. SOUTHEAST IL HAS GENERALLY HAD HALF
TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCAL 1.5-3 INCH AMOUNTS AMOUNTS SOUTH OF
I-70. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER IN SPOTS
OVER CENTRAL IL PAST FEW HOURS WHILE A FEW BANDS OF HEAVIER
RAINS WERE SOUTH OF I-70 WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
TRACKING ENE. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SOUTH OF
I-72 ALONG A TAYLORVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF PARIS LINE AND
EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL MO TO 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH
TEXAS PANHANDLE. PW VALUES RANGE FROM 1.7-2.1 INCHES OVER CWA
WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SW CWA AND HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING
DURING TODAY. LATEST CAMS BRING WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ENE
INTO CENTRAL IL LATE TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL IN BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING. SPC DAY1
OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CLAY, RICHLAND
AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES INTO MID EVENING FOR 5% RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND AND 2% RISK OF TORNADOES. UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF
RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST IL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. MORE OF THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
CANCELLED DURING TONIGHT AS CONVECTION CHANCES WANE. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO MID
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CONVECTION CHANCES ARE MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED ON SATURDAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN EASTERN IL SAT
AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE SATURDAY NIGHT TO RENEW
CHANCES OF CONVECTION BY LATE SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPC
DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR 5% RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALONG AND SW OF A CANTON TO
LINCOLN TO TERRE HAUTE LINE.
*** HEAT WAVE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ***
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL IL DURING SUNDAY COULD
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION. BUT MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE
INCREASE HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY AND RIDGING OVER IL MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S, GIVING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
OF 96-104F SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHEST FROM MACOMB TO SPRINGFIELD
TO LAWRENCEVILLE SW. EVEN HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TO PERSIST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE 70S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-110F MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WE WILL LIKELY NEED HEAT HEADLINES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL AS THIS WILL BE OUR STRONGEST AND
LONGEST HEAT WAVE SO FAR THIS YEAR. CONVECTION CHANCES ARE LESS
THAN 20% MONDAY THRU THU MORNING. THEN 20-30% CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOME DISTURBANCES
PIVOT NORTH AND NE ON WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO/TN RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING WITH COVERAGE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE,
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ILZ054>057-061>063-
066>068-071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page