454
FXUS63 KILX 012255
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
555 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS PEAKING 100 TO 110 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE LATEST NBM INDICATES A
40-60% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
**** HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES ****
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY
FROM SCHUYLER, CASS, MENARD, LOGAN, DEWITT, PIATT, CHAMPAIGN AND
VERMILION COUNTIES SOUTH, WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THERE HAVE THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING GOING THROUGH MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME VARIABLES WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL IL ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS AREA MAY VERY WELL NEED HEAT HEADLINES EXTENDED
INTO FRIDAY TOO IF CONVECTION STAYS FURTHER NORTH.
HEAT INDICES RANGED FROM 98-110F ACROSS CWA AT 2 PM WITH THE
HIGHEST NUMBERS GENERALLY FROM HIGHWAY 51 EAST. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. SSW WINDS WERE 7-15 MPH WITH FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FEW
TO SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS SE OF THE IL RIVER WITH THE CU
FIELD MORE PROMINENT IN EASTERN IL. WE SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS
TROPICAL AIRMASS REST OF THIS WEEK, AND SIMILAR HEAT INDICES
EXPECTED TO PEAK FROM 100-110F THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY THU
EVENING. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105F OR HIGHER STILL EXPECTED FROM
I-72 SOUTH ON FRI AFTERNOON WITH 100-105 NORTH OF I-72.
WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THU NIGHT OVER MUCH OF CWA
EXCEPT SLIGHT POPS FAR SW CWA DURING MID/LATE THU AFTERNOON FROM
TAYLORVILLE AND EFFINGHAM SW. CONVECTION CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
IL THU NIGHT COULD SPILL DOWN INTO NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. OUFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION TO LIKELY REDEVELOP CONVECTION IN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL IL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS CONVECTION GETS AND STAYED CLOSE TO NBM POPS FOR NOW
WHICH HAVE INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.
**** THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ****
NBM HAS INCREASE CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IL ON FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CWA BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH 50-60% POPS. SPC
DAY3 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ALL OF CWA WITH CIG1 OF STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER IOWA. PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. SPC DAY 4-5 FOR THIS WEEKEND
DOES NOT HAVE ANY SEVERE WX OUTLOOKS FOR IL, BUT THE CSU-MLP
AND CIPS SHOWS SOME AT LEAST SOME MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE OVER
MUCH OF CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS UNSTABLE AIR MASS LINGERS.
WPC DAY2-3 ERO FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT PRIMARILY HAS
SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NORTH OF CWA FROM
I-80 NORTH. WPC DAY4-5 ERO FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT HAS
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF IL INCLUDING
OUR CWA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME WEAK TROFING OVER THE MIDWEST
INCLUDING IL BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND NEXT WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F. WE HAVE A DAILY CHANCE (20-40%)
MONDAY THROUGH WED ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JULY
8-14TH HAS 33-40% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
CENTRAL/SE IL WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU AND HIGH
CIRRUS. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KT OVERNIGHT, INCREASING NEAR 10 KT
THU MORNING, SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS AT KPIA.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-041.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ040-042>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...25
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page