638
FXUS63 KILX 030502
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1202 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS
OF 100 TO 110 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, AND WILL LIKELY
REACH 100 TO 105 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST
IL. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY.
- A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (15-30% CHANCE) FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL FOCUS ALONG/NORTH OF A PEORIA TO PONTIAC LINE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (5-15% CHANCE) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY ON
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
**** HEAT AND HUMIDITY ****
DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL PEAK FROM 100-110
DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
FRIDAY, HIGHEST ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOP 110F FOR HEAT INDICES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL EASING OF THE
HEAT OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THOUGH WE WILL LIKELY SEE HEAT
INDICES PEAK FROM 100-105 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND FURTHER HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THEN. WE CONTINUE MESSAGING HEAT SAFETY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL FROM THIS WEEK LONG HEAT WAVE.
**** SEVERE WEATHER RISK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINS ****
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RECENTLY DEVELOP ALONG I-55
IN CENTRAL IL INCLUDING FROM LINCOLN TO JUST SW OF BLOOMINGTON
AND DRIFTING SLOWLY NE. A FEW OTHER CELLS HAD RECENTLY APPEARED
NEAR AND JUST NE OF I-74. VERY UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER CWA WITH MLCAPES 2500-4000 J/KG FROM IL RIVER SE
WHILE WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES 20-25 KTS. HIGH PW VALUES
WERE 1.6-1.9 INCHES OVER CWA HIGHEST SE OF THE IL RIVER. THE
RRFS AND HIRES ARW MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG I-55 AND UTILIZED IT FOR NEAR TERM FORECAST
UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. COULD BE SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGER CELLS NEXT
FEW HOURS IN HEART OF CENTRAL IL.
MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE NW CWA LATE EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT, GETTING ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS PEORIA AND
THEN LIFT NE OF CWA TOWARD DAWN. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS FAR NORTHERN CWA
(NORTHERN PARTS OF KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES AND FAR NW MARSHALL
COUNTY). A DISTURBANCE OVER SD TO TRACK SE OVER IOWA FRI MORNING
AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL DURING MID/LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
INTERACT WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS
CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING TO
BE NORTH OF I-72 WHERE SPC DAY2 HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
FROM CANTON TO BLOOMINGTON NORTH FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS.
5% RISK OF LARGE HAIL ALONG AND NW OF THE IL RIVER. MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER REST OF CWA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WPC DAY2 HAS MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN
IL AND COULD SEE POCKETS OF RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES IN 1-2 HOURS
OVER NORTHERN CWA.
HIGH CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH OVER CWA ON
SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IL SAT NIGHT. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER CWA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING FROM MID AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET SAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAIN THREAT. WPC ERO HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS CWA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
THOUGH HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONGER STORM THREAT MAY SHIFT FURTHER
INTO SOUTHEAST IL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH CWA ON SUNDAY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROFFING DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
TUE TO STILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF CONVECTION AROUND THOUGH
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AND DIURNALLY FAVORED IN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS. STILL WARM AND MUGGY SUNDAY THROUGH WED, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY LEVELS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK FOR JULY 10-16 HAS 35-40% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER IL, WHILE PRECIPITATION TRENDING NEAR NORMAL
IN CENTRAL IL AND 33-40% ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHEAST IL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS HAVE KICKED OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IT IS
POSSIBLE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AT PIA AND POSSIBLY BMI,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO MOST OF FRIDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SW
BY LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS FRIDAY EVENING. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND EXPECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE PRECLUDES MORE THAN A PROB30 MENTION AT THIS TIME.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ049>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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