364
FXUS63 KILX 061849
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
149 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING (20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE).
- HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: A
STALLING WEATHER FRONT COULD BRING WIDESPREAD STORMS LATE
THIS WEEK (60% CHANCE). WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL INTRODUCE A LOCALIZED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE HEAT BY MID-JULY: A POWERFUL HIGH-
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY
BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS, EXCESSIVE HEAT TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK, THOUGH EXACT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY DRY BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TO THE OZARKS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND COULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST. AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON PER SPC MESOANALYSIS,
ALTHOUGH WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNDER 20 KTS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER, AND THIS APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
SLOW STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED, SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD
BE OVER AN INCH FOR LOCALIZED SPOTS AS INDICATED BY ENSEMBLE
PRECIPITATION MAXIMA, ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.
FOR TUESDAY, THE PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD, WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. FOR WEDNESDAY, THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO SHIFT
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER AFTERNOON
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70.
..THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WET PATTERN RETURNING
AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. AS A STRONG UPPER LOW SUPPRESSES THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL IL VICINITY, DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, POTENTIALLY STALLING OUT NEARBY FOR
A FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED AS
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS COULD YIELD A FEW
THOUSAND J/KG CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS AND SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. PREDICTABILITY OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
FEATURES REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN THE
UPCOMING DAYS.
..SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: DRY FOR A FEW DAYS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY
AGAIN, DRIVING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AND DRYING OUT CONDITIONS
AGAIN FOR CENTRAL IL.
..TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY WHEN HIGHS LOOK TO APPROACH 90 AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. IN THE LONG TERM, THE BUILDING WESTERN
CONUS TO CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES INCREASING
FOR ANOTHER HEAT WAVE, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT POSITION OF THE RIDGE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS CONTINUING COOLER CONDITIONS AND
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES OVER THE MIDWEST WITH MORE PRONOUNCED
TROUGHING FARTHER WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS REMAINS OVER CENTRAL IL, BUT WILL LIKELY
LIFT AND SCATTER SOMEWHAT BY 19Z, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS
UNDER SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 00Z,
BUT PROBABILITY FOR AFFECTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT, SKIES WILL
CLEAR, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS, AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY AT
KPIA AND KBMI 09Z-12Z. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS, DECREASING TO UNDER 7
KTS BY 02Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...37
DISCUSSION...37
AVIATION...37
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