210
FXUS63 KILX 071857
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
157 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MOST FOCUSED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A NUMBER OF STORMS TRACKING ALONG
A SLOW-MOVING FRONT. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF RECEIVING AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-70 DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH AN ATTENDANT CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT A LEVEL 1 RISK
IS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER ALL OF THE
AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
- A TREND TOWARD WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, WHICH HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOVEMENT
IN THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK, UNTIL A SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THURSDAY. LOCAL WEATHER IN THE SHORT
TERM SHOULDN'T CHANGE TOO MUCH, WITH WEDNESDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY (MID 80S) AND A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN
SOUTH OF I-70.
AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE BY
AFTERNOON, AND WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (60-80%). A NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE OUTPUTS SUGGEST IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY TO FULLY GET THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA, AS
IT BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. AS SUCH, AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF I-70 WILL SEE THE HIGH POP'S LINGERING THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FRONT GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW, WAVES OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN,
AND A LEVEL 2 RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT IN THAT AREA. SEVERE-WISE, BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS RAMPING UP THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (>40 KNOTS),
SUGGESTING AN INCREASING MCS THREAT. MORNING SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK
INTRODUCED A LEVEL 1 RISK OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
SUGGESTED A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN RISK AS THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CLEAR.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EVOLUTION TOWARD A
STRONG HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND, THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 600 DM ARE
PROGGED BY THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS, WHICH WOULD BE A COUPLE
STANDARDIZED DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO
MID WEEK, RIDGING WOULD AMPLIFY JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CORE
OF THE WARMEST WEATHER IN THIS PATTERN WOULD STAY MORE TO OUR
WEST, THOUGH SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS RESULTED IN SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM KSPI-KCMI, WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING. GETTING
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, SOME SHALLOW LIGHT FOG MAY RESULT IN SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME, AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE
INCLUDED AT ALL SITES FOR ABOUT 10-13Z.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...GEELHART
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