241
FXUS63 KILX 100221
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
921 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE
ON THE STRONG SIDE, BUT THE MAIN THREAT OF THAT WILL BE SOUTH
OF I-72.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FLOODING, WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING MORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-72 BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN TYPICAL FOR JULY. WHILE A WARMING TREND
TAKES PLACE NEXT WEEK, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LESS
OPPRESSIVE THAN LAST WEEK'S HEAT WAVE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE QUITED DOWN FOR NOW, BUT LOTS OF
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. THESE COULD BE FOCUS
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BELIEVE THE MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72/DANVILLE SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
TO REFLECT THAT TREND. ADJUSTED POPS FOR TOMORROW AS WELL SINCE
ANY BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE IN SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE MORNING.
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN
IL/IA WILL SLIDE SOUTH IN OUR NORTH AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPDATE
SHOULD BE COMING SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY):
PROMINENT MCV FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS MISSOURI IS
ABOUT TO CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SOUTH OF PITTSFIELD.
DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS BLOWOFF, MLCAPE'S OF 1000-1500
J/KG HAVE ALLOWED SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST HOUR
ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS. RECENT DAY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHIFTED
THE RISK AREAS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND ARE MAINLY
CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF I-72. GREATEST DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS EXPECTED
PRECEDING THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS,
THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. IN GENERAL, MUCH OF THE SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER MCS ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, MOST OF
THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
A FRONT ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. EAST-WEST UPPER
TROUGHING WILL SET UP DURING THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT ON THE SLOW SIDE. HOWEVER, BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, IT
SHOULD FINALLY BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER, ENDING THE RAIN THREAT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY):
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. A SPRAWLING UPPER
HIGH WILL DOMINATE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CONUS TO START THE
WEEK, BEFORE THE RIDGING AMPLIFIES NEAR THE PLAINS BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR 90
DEGREES IN OUR AREA, THOUGH WITH THE GULF CUT OFF, HUMIDITY
LEVELS SHOULD NOT GET AS ROUGH AS LAST WEEK'S HEAT WAVE. STILL,
HEAT INDEX LEVELS OF 95-100 DEGREES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF, WE'LL BE ON THE PERIPHERY
OF A NORTHWEST FLOW, WHICH CAN BE FAVORABLE FOR MCS ACTIVITY.
RIGHT NOW, THAT ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, SO A DRY FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. ONLY SITES THAT MIGHT GET STORMS ARE PIA AND BMI DUE TO
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING OVER BOTH SITES, SO KEPT A PROB30
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MVFR CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE IFR CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT
ONLY PUTTING IT IN FOR BMI, SPI, DEC, AND CMI BUT NOT PIA.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CU CLOUDS UNTIL AFTERNOON. THEN THIS DISSIPATES AND MID
CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SINCE TIMING IS UNKNOWN, HAVE LEFT ANY PROB30 GROUPS
OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADDED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
UPDATE...AUTEN
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...AUTEN
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