507
FXUS63 KILX 100854
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
354 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
IL, AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-72.
A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-72 WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HAIL ALSO A RISK. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN 1-2 HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL.
- TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN TYPICAL FOR JULY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WHILE A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE NEXT
WORK WEEK, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LESS OPPRESSIVE
THAN LAST WEEK'S OPPRESSIVE HEAT WAVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT):
MCV/MCS OVER SOUTHERN IL INTO SW IN, WESTERN KY, NW TN AND SE
MO WAS TRACKING EASTWARD AND MUCH OF ITS CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAINS IS PASSING SOUTH OF CWA. FLOOD WATCHES ARE POSTED OVER
SOUTHERN IL (SOUTH OF CLAY, RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES)
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION NOTED FROM
HIGHWAY 50 SOUTH. MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION WAS OVER FAR NW IL
INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SE
IOWA, FAR NORTHERN IL (NORTH OF I-88) AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MI. FURTHER WEST IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ANOTHER MCV WAS OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS WITH A SWIRL OF
CONVECTION TRACKING EASTWARD. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION WE ARE
SEEING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL IL WITH MACOMB AT 1/2 MILE AND LINCOLN DOWN TO A MILE.
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OBSERVED FROM I-72 NORTH WITH TEMPS
NEAR DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS HELPING FOG DEVELOP. WE ADDED
PATCHY FOG UNTIL MID MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG NW OF THE IL
RIVER.
LATEST CAMS SHOWS LARGE MCS TRACKING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN IL
INTO KY AND MID TN INTO MID MORNING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION SE
OF I-70. MCV NEAR THE CENTRAL NE/KS BORDER TO TRACK EASTWARD
TOWARD WEST CENTRAL IL BY 00Z/7 PM AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FAR
NORTHERN IL SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IL. WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED BANDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF IT DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MUCAPES
1500-2500 J/KG AND HIGHEST IN SW/SOUTHERN IL). SPC HAS MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FROM
QUINCY TO SPRINGFIELD TO TERRE HAUTE SOUTH WITH SLIGHT RISK
FURTHER SW NEAR ST LOUIS METRO AREA. MAIN SEVERE WX THREAT IS
DAMAGING WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS THOUGH 5% RISK OF LARGE
HAIL OVER SW CWA. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOWS MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL IL AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF
I-72 OVERNIGHT AS MCV MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THE
RAP13 NONSUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER REACHES 0.5-1.5 OVER EAST
CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON SO COULD SEE A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS
SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF IOWA
YESTERDAY. TROPICAL PWATS OF 1.6-2.1 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT
(HIGHEST IN SOUTHERN CWA) AND SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN THREAT LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WPC DAY1 ERO HAS SLIGHT RISK (15%) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER CWA WITH SOUTHERN IL SOUTH OF WAYNE,
EDWARDS AND WABASH COUNTIES HAVE 25% RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT. HIGHS TODAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S. LOWS OVERNIGHT 65-70F.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN IL ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM I-72 SOUTH
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS CANTON AND
BLOOMINGTON. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK KEEPS RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH
OF CWA ON SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE WPC DAY2 ERO HAS MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST IL SAT AND SAT EVENING.
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS A BIT LOWER IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. BRUNT OF CONVECTION PASSES SOUTH OF CENTRAL
IL OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THOUGH WE STILL HAVE 20-30%
CHANCE OVER FAR SOUTHERN CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTH OF IL BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY
MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS 65-70F. WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY):
SPRAWLING MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND RIDGING INTO IL AND THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY DURING EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK, WILL
BRING SEASONABLY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX LEVELS OF 95-100 DEGREES ARE
LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES WITH SOME
UPPER LEVEL TROFFING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND LATER
NEXT WEEK, WILL PUT IL IN A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
AND FAVORABLE FOR MCS ACTIVITY FROM THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND
(JULY 20-21). THOUGH BLENDED POPS ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 20%
OVER CWA THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE SOME UNCERTAINTY OF PATTERN
SHIFT.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JULY
15-19TH HAS 55-65% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER CWA
AND 35-45% CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. CPC 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOK FOR JULY 17-23RD HAS 40-50% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER IL WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT, AND PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. THERE
ARE LOW PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
OTHER AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE SCATTERED TSRA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE ISSUES, KEPT MENTION TO
PROB30 FOR NOW. WINDS PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...25
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