923
FXUS63 KILX 101931
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
231 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH POCKETS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOUTH OF I-72.
- LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT THIS
EVENING, AND AGAIN SATURDAY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES AGAIN NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG
A GALESBURG TO WATSEKA LINE. CONVECTION DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY, AND HAS PRODUCED A FEW
FUNNEL CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
FUNNELS MAY DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF I-74 AS STORMS DEVELOP, BUT
WILL LIKELY FADE AWAY ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAS REACHED THE MID 80S AS OF 1 PM, THOUGH SOME LOWER
TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
MORE EXTENSIVE SO FAR TODAY.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY):
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH THE PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY,
INVOLVING TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AND ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER OR FLOODING.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN MCS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI. WHILE THE CORE OF THIS
SHOULD TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST, RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND/OR MCV'S
WILL HELP TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STORMS FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHICH ARE
MOST FAVORED TO CROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING. HREF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES NEAR/SOUTH
OF I-72 BY THIS EVENING, SUPPORTING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. LOCALIZED PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEANS
(LPMM) SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
HEAVIER STORMS, AND A LEVEL 2 RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COVERS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WHILE SOME AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS DID
RECEIVE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN LAST EVENING, COVERAGE OF THAT
INTENSITY WAS NOT REALLY WIDESPREAD, WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
BEING RATHER DRY BEFORE THAT. WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE NEAR I-72 BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL OF THE CAM'S SUGGEST REDEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH
OF THIS AREA BY MIDDAY, THOUGH THE NAM-NEST LOOKS MORE LIKE A
PROMINENT MCV OR SMALL-SCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA. RECENT SPC DAY2
OUTLOOK BROUGHT THE LEVEL 1 RISK UP TO ABOUT I-70, FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, SEVERAL MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING IT WILL PINCH OFF AN UPPER LOW. THIS WOULD KEEP A
THREAT OF RAIN CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, PRIMARILY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY):
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO COVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CONUS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK, CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A BIT OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP, WITH THE UPPER LOW
LINGERING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH TIME, THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH FINALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH
RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS BY LATE
WEEK. THE OVERALL PATTERN MUCH OF THE WEEK IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOW MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
FOR SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TOWARD LATE WEEK, AS WE START TO GET MORE INTO A
NORTHWEST FLOW AND CONVECTION SLIDES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK REMAIN QUITE WARM, THOUGH THE REX
BLOCK PATTERN WILL CUT OFF ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION,
KEEPING HEAT INDEX READINGS IN CHECK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHILE SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS HAVE OCCURRED LATE THIS MORNING
FROM KGBG-KBMI, MAIN AVIATION CONCERN INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
TIMING OF CONVECTION. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN APPEARS TO BE
00-06Z, ESPECIALLY FROM KSPI-KCMI. HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY VISIBILITY DROPS BELOW 2SM IN A
FEW AREAS.
WITH A FRONT SETTLING OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT, CONCERN
SHIFTS TO LOWER CEILINGS. MORNING HREF RUN SHOWS ABOUT A 30-50%
CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 3000 FEET AT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING
AROUND 09-10Z, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO LINGER INTO LATE
MORNING CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...GEELHART
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