986
FXUS63 KILX 111717
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1217 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY
FROM I-72 SOUTH WHERE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF
THEY OCCUR IN URBAN AREAS.
- THERE IS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS SOUTH, PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS WEEKEND, MID TO UPPER 80S
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PEAK IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR
100 DURING MID WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST
SOUTH OF QUINCY. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE HARDER TO PICK OUT
WITHIN THE OBS, BUT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM ABOUT PITTSFIELD EAST
TO PARIS. DRIER AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
THIS MORNING, WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DEW POINTS DOWN
INTO THE 60-65 RANGE FROM ABOUT PEORIA NORTHWARD. RAINFALL OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA HAS DIMINISHED SOME THIS MORNING,
THOUGH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD. THAT PARTICULAR
AREA IS UNCAPPED WITH SURFACE CAPE'S OVER 1000 J/KG, THOUGH
FORECAST SHEAR IS MINIMAL. MORNING CAM'S FOCUS MOST OF THE
REMAINING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF I-72/DANVILLE AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD, AND POP'S HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A DRIER
TREND NORTH OF I-72.
WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTHWARD, THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FUNNEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RAP
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTING AN AREA FROM ABOUT JACKSONVILLE TO TERRE
HAUTE WITH THE GREATER RISK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY):
A WEAKENING MCV OVER CENTRAL IL WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE IL RIVER AND FROM I-74 SOUTH.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS WERE OVER NORTHERN CHRISTIAN
COUNTY, NW AND NE OF TAYLORVILLE AND TRACKING EASTWARD. THERE
WERE SOME FLOOD WARNINGS IN NORTHEAST COLES, SW EDGAR AND
NORTHERN CLARK COUNTIES WHERE MRMS SHOWS POCKETS OF 2-3.5 INCHES
OF RAIN PAST 6 HOURS. PWATS OF 1.7-2.2 INCHES OVER CWA WITH 2
INCHES PW VALUES AS FAR NORTH AS LINCOLN IN LOGAN COUNTY. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-72. ALOFT A WEAK
583 DECAMETER 500 MB LOW WAS ALONG THE EASTERN IA/MO BORDER.
THIS FEATURE TO PIVOT INTO SOUTHEAST IL BY MID AFTERNOON HELPING
PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST IL DURING
THIS AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS LINGERS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL MUCH OF TODAY, THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO NORTHERN/NW CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MUCAPES PEAK
FROM 1000-1800 J/KG SE OF THE IL RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KTS IN SOUTHEAST IL SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS MORNING. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF A TAYLORVILLE TO PARIS LINE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS A RISK FROM
WET MICROBURSTS. THE SLIGHT RISK IS OVER SOUTHERN IL, SOUTH OF
CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR, WITH MUCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG. PWATS ARE ALSO HIGHER
THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO ACROSS IL TODAY AND A FLOOD WATCH
REMAIN IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CWA FROM WAYNE, EDWARDS AND WABASH
COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HREF LPMM SHOWS POCKETS OF
2-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 6 HOURS FROM I-72 SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WPC DAY1 ERO HAS MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SE OF THE IL RIVER TODAY, WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK IN SOUTHEAST IL. ALSO THE RAP13 AND NAM
NONSUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETERS SHOWS 1-3 UNITS SE OF THE IL
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON, SO FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY AGAIN BE A RISK LIKE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S WITH SOME MID 80S NW OF THE IL RIVER. STILL MUGGY DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY SE OF THE IL RIVER AND UPPER 60S NW
OF THE IL RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN CENTRAL
IL AND UPPER 60S IN SOUTHEAST IL.
THE WEAK CUTOFF 500 MB LOW MOVES INTO KY/TN ON SUNDAY WITH BEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION SHIFTING SE OF CWA. WE STILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FAR SE IL NEAR LAWRENCE COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK KEEPS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
SE OF IL ALONG WITH WPC DAY2 ERO. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S, WARMEST OVER THE IL RIVER VALLEY. DEWPOINTS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHERN CWA AND LOWER 70S IN
SOUTHEAST IL. A BIT WARMER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY):
EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BUILD A 600 DECAMETER 500 MB HIGH
OVER CENTRAL MN ON MONDAY. THIS STRONG 500 MB HIGH TO BE JUST
NORTH AND NE OF CENTRAL IL TUE/WED BRINGING A HEAT WAVE TO THE
AREA, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS LAST WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S MONDAY AND UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S TUE-THU WITH DEWPOINTS
BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A REX BLOCK LIKE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TN
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY, AND OVER THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
TUE/WED. MUCH OF CENTRAL IL SHOULD BE DRY AND VERY WARM MON-
WED, THOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW IN LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST IL
DURING TUE/WED AFTERNOON, THOUGH CURRENTLY WE KEEP POPS LESS
THAN 20%. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRI/SAT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. THIS PUTS IL IN A
NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME SIGNALS OF CONVECTION CHANCES FROM
THU INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH CHANCES ARE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JULY
18-24 HAS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TRENDING NEAR NORMAL
OVER IL. CPC'S WEEK 3-4 OUTLOOK FOR JUL 25 TO AUG 7 HAS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND 35-45% CHANCE
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION (HIGHEST IN EASTERN IL).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
BAND OF LOW CEILINGS NEAR A FRONT JUST SOUTH OF KSPI-KCMI HAS
SHOWN SOME IMPROVEMENT AS OF LATE, THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. AS THE FRONT SETTLE
SOUTHWARD, NORTHEAST WINDS 8-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME PREVALENT, AND
ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS WELL. WILL
INCLUDE SOME PROB30 MENTIONS FOR THUNDER IN THIS CORRIDOR
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, THEN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
UPDATE...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...GEELHART
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