704
FXUS63 KILX 111922
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
222 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-72/DANVILLE. WHILE
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH,
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.
- COOLER NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S), BEFORE A RETURN TO VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE WORK WEEK. PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS ABOVE 90
DEGREES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY (40-60% CHANCE), WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER
EASTERN ILLINOIS BY LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY):
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING A CENTER WEST OF
EFFINGHAM. STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING LATELY ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY, WHICH IS ROUGHLY JUST SOUTH OF I-72. NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS RANGES FROM 2-3 AROUND
SPRINGFIELD (VALUE OF 1 INDICATES AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL), AND A
COUPLE FUNNELS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED AROUND SPRINGFIELD.
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FUNNEL POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE SITUATION.
THE PRIMARY RAIN THREAT WILL BE THROUGH SUNSET, CONCENTRATED IN
AREAS ALONG I-72/DANVILLE SOUTHWARD, AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST-
SOUTHEAST. WHILE HREF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES, WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVY RAIN,
STORMS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY, ALTHOUGH
TRAINING IN A FEW AREAS. THUS, SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FURTHER NORTH, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST, WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-74. THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY):
THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK HAS NOT
CHANGED. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DOMINATE
THE CONUS MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH A REX BLOCK PATTERN AS THE
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY OOZES WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
GETTING LATE IN TO THE WEEK, THE BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE
ALIGNED NEAR THE ROCKIES, GETTING MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THIS PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT, MAINLY UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR HIGHS. NBM APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING DEW POINTS A BIT
TOO MUCH, GIVEN THE RECENT WET WEATHER AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
BUMPING THESE UP A BIT BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
BAND OF LOW CEILINGS NEAR A FRONT JUST SOUTH OF KSPI-KCMI HAS
SHOWN SOME IMPROVEMENT AS OF LATE, THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. AS THE FRONT SETTLE
SOUTHWARD, NORTHEAST WINDS 8-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME PREVALENT, AND
ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS WELL. WILL
INCLUDE SOME PROB30 MENTIONS FOR THUNDER IN THIS CORRIDOR
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, THEN DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...GEELHART
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