104
FXUS63 KILX 120147
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
847 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-72/DANVILLE. WHILE
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH,
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.
- COOLER NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S), BEFORE A RETURN TO VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THE WORK WEEK. PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS ABOVE 90
DEGREES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY (40-60% CHANCE), WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER
EASTERN ILLINOIS BY LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST, PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA.
ONLY PRECIP LEFT IS AN ISOLATED SHOWER SOUTH OF I-70. REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD, SO NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY):
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING A CENTER WEST OF
EFFINGHAM. STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING LATELY ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY, WHICH IS ROUGHLY JUST SOUTH OF I-72. NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS RANGES FROM 2-3 AROUND
SPRINGFIELD (VALUE OF 1 INDICATES AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL), AND A
COUPLE FUNNELS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED AROUND SPRINGFIELD.
RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FUNNEL POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE SITUATION.
THE PRIMARY RAIN THREAT WILL BE THROUGH SUNSET, CONCENTRATED IN
AREAS ALONG I-72/DANVILLE SOUTHWARD, AS THE LOW DRIFTS EAST-
SOUTHEAST. WHILE HREF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES, WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVY RAIN,
STORMS SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY, ALTHOUGH
TRAINING IN A FEW AREAS. THUS, SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FURTHER NORTH, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST, WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S NEAR AND NORTH OF I-74. THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY):
THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK HAS NOT
CHANGED. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DOMINATE
THE CONUS MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH A REX BLOCK PATTERN AS THE
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY OOZES WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
GETTING LATE IN TO THE WEEK, THE BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE
ALIGNED NEAR THE ROCKIES, GETTING MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THIS PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT, MAINLY UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR HIGHS. NBM APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING DEW POINTS A BIT
TOO MUCH, GIVEN THE RECENT WET WEATHER AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
BUMPING THESE UP A BIT BRINGS HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. CLOUDS
WILL BE FEW TO SCATTERED WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS, BUT THIS WILL
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING BUT BECOME LIGHTER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW, BUT REMAIN AROUND
10KTS OR LESS AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
UPDATE...AUTEN
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...AUTEN
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