378
FXUS63 KILX 122333
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
633 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW, WITH A LOW CHANCE (<20%) FOR ACTIVITY TO
STRETCH AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS (SOUTH OF I-70) THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. GENTLE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT
LOWER DEWPOINT AIR SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL US THIS WEEK AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW MEANDERS WESTWARD, RESULTING IN A REX BLOCK.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BECOMING
SEASONABLY HOT BY TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF
EXTREME FORECAST INDEX SHOWS VALUES BETWEEN 0.9-1 THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY, WHICH INDICATES THAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
AN ANOMALOUS EVENT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WILL BE
A TOUCH LOWER THAN OUR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY HEAT WAVE, THOUGH
WITH CORN AND SOY PLANTS AT THEIR PEAK FOR EVAPOTRANSPIRATION,
DEWPOINTS MAY OVERPERFORM. PEAK HEAT INDICES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING AT
LEAST A 20-30% CHANCE FOR VALUES TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN
SHIELDED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOMETIME LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY BRING LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, DISCREPANCIES
IN TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND STRENGTH EXIST THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...AUTEN
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