387
FXUS63 KILX 140502
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1202 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AT OR ABOVE
100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
A REX BLOCK FEATURING A PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT SUMMER WEATHER WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S ON TUESDAY, THEN WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
BOLSTERED BY PEAK EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM MATURING CROPS,
DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...RESULTING
IN PEAK HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER EACH
AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS LEVEL OF HEAT IS NOTHING OUT OF THE
ORDINARY FOR MID-JULY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS, THE NWS HEATRISK
CLIMBS INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
PEOPLE WHO ARE PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE/VULNERABLE TO HEAT SUCH AS
THE ELDERLY AND THOSE WITH HEALTH ISSUES SHOULD THEREFORE TAKE
PRECAUTIONS.
MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH, A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
TRAVERSING CENTRAL CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE AND DIG INTO
QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN THE PREVAILING UPPER RIDGE AND LEAD TO A SMALL INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS
ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY SHARPENS THE NE TROUGH, IT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AFTER THAT, THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL
STRONGLY SUGGEST A RETURN TO DEEP-LAYER NW FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND A RESULTING LOWERING IN TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE PATTERN CHANGE WITH A RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM JULY 20-26.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO LIGHT FOG ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN
LIGHT UNDER 10 KT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...25
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