521
FXUS63 KILX 141752
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE US -- UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND LOW
PRESSURE POSITIONED EQUATORWARD OF IT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS (LOW
TO MIDDLE 70S) LEADING TO PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100
DEGREES, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS WEEK COULD
ALLEVIATE THE HEAT FOR SOME.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WORK THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES, JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL
OOZE NORTHWARD IN A WEAKENED STATE BEGINNING THURSDAY, BRINGING
JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY (FRIDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES). WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE, MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER, WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM LONGEVITY AND
ORGANIZATION.
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT
WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE REPRIEVE FROM HEAT WILL COME FOR SOME
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (NORTHERN COUNTIES), A MORE NOTICEABLE "COOLDOWN"
CLOSER TO OUR SEASONAL NORMALS WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A
STRONGER UPPER WAVE SENDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF JULY TYPICALLY
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL PARTWAY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TEMPO GROUP FOR VISBY REDUCTIONS
HAS BEEN ADDED AT KPIA FOR NOW, BUT MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED AT
ADDITIONAL SITES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...NMA
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