536
FXUS63 KILX 160552
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1252 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AROUND 100
DEGREES, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE
ATOP OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN US (REX BLOCK), KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY WARM. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S
HAVE LED TO PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO NEAR
100 SO FAR TODAY, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE RETURN OF SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING
TOMORROW COULD ALLEVIATE THE HEAT FOR SOME.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WORK THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES, JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BITS OF ENERGY FROM
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OOZE NORTHWARD IN A WEAKENED
STATE AS SOON AS TOMORROW, BRINGING ENOUGH FORCING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY (FRIDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCES).
MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
LIMIT STORM LONGEVITY AND ORGANIZATION. HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS WILL FAVOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, WITH THE 15.12Z HREF LPMM
SHOWING LOCALIZED POCKETS OF OVER 2" POSSIBLE.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXIST SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK AS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
SENDING A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY, STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING WAVE. ALTHOUGH A SUBTLE REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT WILL COME
FOR SOME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A MORE NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN WON'T
ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTER A STRONGER UPPER WAVE SENDS
A MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING
OVERNIGHT AND LIFT BETWEEN 12-13Z. SPI TENDS TO BE MORE PRONE
TO THIS OCCURRENCE PAST FEW NIGHTS, SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A
MENTION THERE AT THIS POINT WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
10-13Z. SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH 3-5K FT
BASES TO APPEAR BY 15Z AND DISSIPATE AROUND DUSK/02Z. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON FROM SPI AND DEC SOUTH AND DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. CONTINUED PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDTIONS WITH TSRA AT
SPI/DEC FROM 22Z-01Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO APPEAR
OVER NORTHEAST IL LATE THU AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET, BUT THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY NE OF THE I-74 AIRPORTS (PIA, BMI, CMI).
ANOTHER CONCERN IS CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WHICH CURRENTLY NEAR
GROUND SMOKE AND VSBYS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST IL, NE OF I-74 THOUGH A THIN SMOKE LAYER ALOFT AT 25K
FT COULD IMPACT THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS ESPECIALLY ALONG I-74.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...07
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