601
FXUS63 KILX 192314
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
614 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY: SMOKE FROM UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADIAN
WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY, BRINGING
REDUCED AIR QUALITY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSH THE PLUME
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT): ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL TARGET PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTH OF I-70, WITH
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS TUESDAY: A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY...
CANADIAN AND UPPER MIDWEST WILDFIRE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A SMOKE PLUME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST. CURRENT HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY AS A FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND HELPING TO
SHUNT THE SMOKE PLUME NORTHWARD.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
ON MONDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION, ALLOWING A WARM, MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH DEW
POINTS REACHING INTO THE MID 70S. WHILE THE RETURN OF HEAT AND
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER DUE TO A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS LINGERING OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, DESTABILIZATION
WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR.
STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, WITH MLCAPE VALUES PROJECTED TO PEAK AROUND 2500 J/KG
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A JET STREAM DIGGING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL FACILITATE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEASONABLY STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS, SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY MID TO LATE EVENING, A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL AID IN STORM MAINTENANCE AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY PRESENT THE BEST PARAMETER
SPACE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
CONVECTION: TUESDAY...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SIGNIFICANT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT,
COINCIDENT WITH PERSISTENT, STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, BEFORE
ACTIVITY CLEARS THE AREA.
EXTENDED FORECAST: WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, WILL
FEATURE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST, TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH NO NOTABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST,
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING,
AS THE EXTENSIVE SMOKE FIELD REMAINS IN PLACE. VISIBILITY OF
3-5SM WILL BE COMMON, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON FROM KGBG-KSPI WESTWARD. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY WILL TAKE PLACE FROM WEST
TO EAST, LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AS WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUSH THE SMOKE OUT OF THE AREA.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...DEUBELBEISS
DISCUSSION...DEUBELBEISS
AVIATION...GEELHART
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