896
FXUS63 KILX 290502
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1202 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT WEEK, HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
- A CUTOFF LOW MOVING NEAR IL LATE THIS WEEK, WILL LIKELY BRING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WE HAVE ENTERED INTO A PERIOD OF MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE NEW WEEK
WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. THIS MORE SEASONABLE
PATTERN MAY NOT LAST LONG AS THE CPC HAS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAYS 6-10 AND 8-14 OUTLOOKS.
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE FIRES OUT WEST IN OREGON AND WASHINGTON IS
RIDING THE RIDGE. SKIES WHERE THERE AREN'T CLOUDS WILL APPEAR HAZY
FROM THE SMOKE. THE SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND NOT COME DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. MAIN EFFECTS WE WILL SEE ARE VIBRANT SUNRISES AND
SUNSETS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARER, SO GET THOSE CAMERAS READY!
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OFF TO OUR WEST. MOVING INTO
FRIDAY, THE RIDGING BEGINS TO GET DISTURBED AS UPPER WAVE AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH
PWATS RETURN THE ILLINOIS AS THIS WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAKES THE JOURNEY ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE PROFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE CURRENT QPF FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IS SHOWING 1-2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL, MAINLY NORTH
OF I-70, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I-70. WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN IL AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR EASTERN
IL. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SEVERE RISK WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOW.
MUCAPE VALUES ARE ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG, BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE DECENT. THE MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ARE DEPICTING A LOWERED TO
NO SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE NEW
WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER NEAR 15KFT FADING OFF BEFORE SUNRISE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME BY MIDDAY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS, UP TO 8-10
KNOTS, DIMINISHING AGAIN AROUND SUNSET.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...GEELHART
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