710
FXUS63 KILX 291630
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL FOR A FEW DAYS WITH COOLEST DAYTIME
HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS AROUND.
- CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NEAR IL LATE THIS WEEK, TO SPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE DURING
FRIDAY, WITH LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE IL RIVER.
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY LATE THIS WEEK, THOUGH NBM HAS
0.75-1.50 INCH RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-74.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
PLEASANT WEATHER ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. 1015-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE FROM JAMES BAY
CANADA INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL TO STAY NEARLY ANCHORED OVER IL
INTO THU, PROVIDING THE FAIR WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY
WITH SOME PATCHES OF CUMULUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO HAVE A
LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT THAT MAY GIVE MORE VIBRANT/RED SUNRISE AND
SUNSET TODAY. HRRR MODEL HAS THIS ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER THINNING
OUT SOME FROM NE TO SW DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP THE SMOKE LAYER ELEVATED SO AIR QUALITY SHOULD OK, IN THE
GOOD TO MODERATE CATEGORY TODAY AND THU. HIGHS TODAY OF 82-86F.
NORTH WINDS TURNING NE TODAY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS TO CONTINUE
TO FILTER IN LESS HUMID AIR. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SE IL, EXCEPT UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SW IL FROM MACOMB TO JACKSONVILLE WEST.
FAIR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NE WINDS. LOWS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER 60S, WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN EAST CENTRAL IL.
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS THU NIGHT IN
THE MID 60S, THOUGH SOME LOWER 60S IN EAST CENTRAL IL AND UPPER
60S IN WEST CENTRAL IL. WE HAVE 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF
THE IL RIVER LATE THU NIGHT WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF GALESBURG AND RUSHVILLE LATE
THU NIGHT.
A DISTURBANCE OVER UTAH TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THU AND STRENGTHEN WITH DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW
INTO SOUTHERN MN AND IOWA BY DAWN FRIDAY AND OVER IL BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY WITH ~1005 MB SURFACE LOW PIVOTING OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND INTO SOUTHERN IL ON SATURDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.7-2.1
INCHES ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AND COULD SUPPORT POCKETS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. AREAS FROM I-74 NORTH
COULD STAY IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINS LONGER FRI
AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT AND MORE LIKELY TO SEE OVER 1 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WPC DAY3 ERO HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF IL FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT. MUCH OF
CENTRAL IL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM FRI/SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, EXCEPT
LOWER 80S IN SE IL FRIDAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE LATER IN THE
DAY. WPC DAY4 ERO HAS SHIFTED THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL JUST EAST OF IL FOR SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROF TO
WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST/SE OF IL SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY THOUGH
WE MAY STILL SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY EAST OF THE IL RIVER. LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDS A BIT
QUICKER EXISTING SYSTEM SO SUNDAY MAY TURN OUT DRIER. HIGHS
SUNDAY AROUND 80F.
EXTENDED MODELS SIMILAR IN BUILDING A STRONGER 500 MB RIDGE FROM
THE 4 CORNERS INTO WI/IL EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK (500 MB HEIGHTS
RISING TO 588-591 DECAMETERS OVER IL MON/TUE), WHICH WOULD
LIKELY BRING WARMER SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING INTO THE
MIDWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY RETURN CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WED/THU.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST
5-11TH HAS A 50-60% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER IL
WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, GRADUALLY VEERING
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPART.
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
PERHAPS LOWERING VISIBILITY FOR A BRIEF TIME.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...MJA
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