375
FXUS63 KILX 011055
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
555 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TODAY FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF I-70. FLASH FLOODING COULD
OCCUR WHERE GROUNDS ARE ALREADY SATURATED OR AFTER MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. EXPECT RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES IN THESE PERSISTENT BANDS, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
- OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY. THE HREF SHOWS A 60-80%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH WEST OF I-55 DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- PLEASANT, DRY, AND WARM WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN THE LATE-WEEK TIMING REMAINS LOW, SO PLEASE
CHECK BACK FOR LATER FORECASTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY TRAVELING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE UNITED STATES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL AGAIN TODAY, BUT WON'T BE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL. THE
NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW PIVOTS INTO THE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY. THE GREATEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WON'T BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL BE FAIRLY
LOCALIZED. AS OF THIS MORNING, MRMS IS ESTIMATING SOME LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IL IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. IN CONTRAST, SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH IN THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. WPC HAS US IN A SLIGHT
RISK ERO FOR TODAY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF I-70.
FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR WHERE GROUNDS ARE ALREADY SATURATED
OR AFTER MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER WILL INCREASE AS LOCALIZED
MAXIMUMS OF LOW-LEVEL SRH PIVOT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
SOMEONE MAY SEE A FUNNEL CLOUD (OR MULTIPLE) ACROSS CENTRAL IL.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE HREF SHOWS A 60-80% CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH WEST OF I-55 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE SOLIDLY BACK INTO THE 80S BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THE NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMING
INTO THE 70S BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WEATHER WILL DRY OUT FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MUDDLE THE NEW WEEK STARTING
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE LOW (~20%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK FROM THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO ILLINOIS, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ALONG WITH IT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24
HOURS, BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LOW
CEILINGS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHOWERS AND LOWERED CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 12Z PERIOD. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO BE IFR/LIFR
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. WINDS S-SE 7-12 KTS SHIFTING
TO N AND INCREASING TO 14-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY
16Z-22Z. ALL SITES SHOULD BE DRY BY 09Z TONIGHT -- WORKING WEST
TO EAST IN TIME, WITH PIA BEING DRY BY 02Z AND CMI DRY BY 09Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...COPPLE
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