756
FXUS63 KILX 021651
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1151 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT START TO AUGUST CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES WEDNESDAY,
CONTINUING WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. THERE IS A
30-50% CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEING GREATER THAN 96
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
AS THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING, THE
SHOWERS WILL LEAVE WITH IT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 80S IN WESTERN IL TODAY,
WITH EASTERN IL IN THE UPPER 70S. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW IN THE
60S WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO APPROACH 90
DEGREES FOR HIGHS BY NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. THE LREF SHOWS A 30-50% CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES
BEING GREATER THAN 96 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THEY UPPER FLOW GETS
DISTURBED BY A 500 MB SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
THE STATE. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF CAPE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG MAXIMIZED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE 30 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS WAVE OF STORMS IS LOW AND MACHINE LEARNING MODELS SHOWS
THE RISK BEING PRETTY MINIMAL AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL POSSIBLY
STALL OUT OVER THE AREA, BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
BKN STRATOCU WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH BASES RISING ABOVE 3K FEET OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BEYOND THIS, A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY IS LIKELY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO LIGHT FOG. NNE WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 20 KT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING,
REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...25
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