130
FXUS63 KILX 031634
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1134 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND BELOW-NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S THROUGH TUESDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY (60-90%
CHANCE) LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONT
PASSES. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS NEAR 90F BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE FOR HEAT INDICES GREATER THAN 95
DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW IN THE 60S WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO APPROACH 90 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. THE LREF SHOWS A 20-40% CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEING
GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 40-60% CHANCE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE CPC HAS BOTH
THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS WITH 60-70% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, SO THE SWELTERING WEATHER ISN'T OVER QUITE YET FOR
THIS SUMMER.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW GETS
DISTURBED BY A 500 MB SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
THE STATE. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS (GFS, EURO) ARE SHOWING AN AREA
OF SHOWERS SCRAPING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY. THEN, THEY ARE SHOWING THE MAIN COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MOVING NORTH OF A MCDONOUGH COUNTY TO
MCLEAN COUNTY LINE WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERY ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THERE
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH, THE EXACT LOCATION MAY
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AS WE APPROACH MIDWEEK. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE
OF CAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MUCAPE VALUES (AND SIMILARLY
SBCAPE VALUES) AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
30-50 KNOTS. SRH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 200-300 IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COMPLEX. THIS SHOULD SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WE COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FOCUSED NORTH OF I-72, CLOSER TO I-74. THE
SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON D3
(WEDNESDAY).
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY COULD POSSIBLY STALL OUT OVER THE AREA,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
DEPICTING MORE OF A DRY PATTERN FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITIES BEYOND THURSDAY MORNING AS WE MOVE FORWARD IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL LIFT AND BREAK FOR CLEAR SKIES BEYOND
00Z. PATCHY FOG IS A LOW PROBABILITY OVERNIGHT, BUT HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITY TUESDAY MORNING AS A HEDGE.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A RIDGE/HIGH-PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...MJA/COPPLE
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