182
FXUS63 KILX 040735
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
235 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEST AND NORTHWEST OF A ST
LOUIS TO WATSEKA LINE WEDNESDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES, THOUGH PASSING STORM COMPLEXES
COULD OCCASIONALLY TEMPER THE HEAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW IN THE 60S WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO NEAR OR RISE ABOVE 90
DEGREES FOR HIGHS BY SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY. THE LREF SHOWS A 50-80% CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES
BEING GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 50-70% CHANCE
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE CPC HAS
BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS WITH 60-80% CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SO THE SWELTERING WEATHER ISN'T OVER QUITE YET
FOR THIS SUMMER. THIS IS SAID WITH THE CAVEAT OF IF WE GET SOME
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK, THE HEAT INDICES
MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE 95-100+ DEGREES.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCIES IN
THE CAMS WITH THE TIMING OF THE EARLIER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR HAS THE ACTIVITY ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA BY
10Z, WHEREAS THE NAMNEST HAS IT ENTERING BY 15Z. IT LOOKS TO BE THAT
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCAPE VALUES (AND SIMILARLY SBCAPE
VALUES) ARE STILL LOOKING TO BE AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS. SRH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 200-300 IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ACTIVITY. THE SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF A ST LOUIS TO WATSEKA
LINE. IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS, IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS ARE
BEST FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY. ALL
HAZARDS ARE IN PLAY, WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. OVERNIGHT, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE WITHOUT THE DAYTIME
HEATING EFFECT. WPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK ERO IN PLACE FOR NEARLY
THE SAME AREA AS THE SPC OUTLOOK. THE CAMS ARE HINTING AT SOME
TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
THE FRONT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE AREA BEYOND
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING US IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THURSDAY HAS A VERY SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL LOOK IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY
OVER WEST/SOUTHWESTERN IL, IN THE AFTERNOON. EACH DAY, FROM THURSDAY
TO MONDAY, COULD SEE SOME LOW RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BASED OFF A
COARSE LOOK AT THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE AND A LOOK AT THE MACHINE
LEARNING MODELS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SHOWERY AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES BEYOND THURSDAY MORNING AS WE MOVE
FORWARD IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS,
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG AND SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED
IN THE EARLY MORNING FROM AROUND 09Z-13Z. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BECOMING S 4-8 KTS BY 16Z. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...37
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