307
FXUS63 KILX 051055
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
555 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF A TAYLORVILLE TO
GIBSON CITY LINE, PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THERE IS
A 2% TORNADO RISK WEST OF I-55.
- OFF-AND-ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION, THOUGH
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, PUSHING
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER, PASSING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY PERIODICALLY DISRUPT THE INTENSE
HEAT AND LOWER THE TEMPERATURES SOME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS IN WESTERN IL SO FAR THIS MORNING AND IS
DECAYING AS IT IS MOVING EAST. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES
INTO THE STATE THEN STALLS OUT LATER TODAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING
WINDS, BUT THERE IS A 2% TORNADO RISK WEST OF I-55.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM 19Z TO 03Z (2PM TO 10PM). THE ENVIRONMENT IS DECENTLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE. MUCAPE VALUES (AND SIMILARLY SBCAPE VALUES
WITH A SMALL CAP) OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40
KNOTS. SRH VALUES LOOK TO BE AROUND 200-300 MOSTLY WEST OF I-55
WHERE THE 2% TORNADO RISK EXISTS. OVERNIGHT, THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD WANE WITHOUT DAYTIME HEATING. CAMS ARE DEPICTING EVERYTHING
DISSIPATING IN EASTERN IL AROUND 03-04Z PROVIDING WIDESPREAD DRY
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. THE MOST EXTREME VERSION OF
WIDESPREAD DRYING CONDITIONS IN THE CAMS IS THE RRFS. RRFS IS
SHOWING EVERYTHING DRYING OUT BY 00Z AND STAYING WIDELY DRY THROUGH
ABOUT 09-10Z TONIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST CWA LOOKS TO ENTER BY 08-10Z TONIGHT.
WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ERO FOR TODAY. THE CAMS ARE SHOWING SOME
TRAINING TODAY FOCUSED NEAR/ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER AND EXTENDING
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF IL. LPMM IS SHOWING POCKETS OF 3-5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.
THE FRONT IS GOING TO LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
US IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN. EACH DAY, FROM THURSDAY TO MONDAY, COULD
SEE SOME NON-ZERO RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-70), WITH THE MACHINE LEARNING MODELS POINTING THAT WAY AS
WELL. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE FORECAST. CHECK
BACK WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS TO SEE IF ANY SEVERE THREATS HAVE
INCREASED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW IN THE 60S CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
NEAR OR RISE ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS BY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. THE LREF SHOWS A 50-80% CHANCE OF APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BEING GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
40-60% CHANCE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THE CPC HAS BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS IS SAID WITH THE CAVEAT: IF WE GET WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE BEGINNING PART OF THE WEEK, THE HEAT
INDICES MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE 95-100+ DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE
ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST. CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO DROP TO MVFR LATE IN THE PERIOD, STARTING AT PIA
BY 08Z AND BMI BY 09Z.
WINDS SSW 4-8 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z-05Z.
WINDS COULD PICK UP WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH A
SITE THIS AFTERNOON.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...COPPLE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page