348
FXUS63 KILX 060723
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
223 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. SATURDAY HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DRY
CONDITIONS. SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INCREASED HEAT/HUMIDITY (HEAT INDICES
NEARING 100F) AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF HEAT INDICES BEING GREATER THAN
95 DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTH OF I-74/DANVILLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED OUT OVER NORTHERN IL AT THIS POINT.
THAT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL (500MB) VORT MAXES TOGETHER WILL BRING
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE STATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TODAY THE RAIN IS PRIMARILY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR. IT
IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR MUCH FURTHER NORTH THE RAIN WILL EXTEND
BUT SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE
ALREADY IS SOME ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST CWA NOW (~07Z)
FROM THE CONVECTION IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVE THROUGH COULD SEE SOME PONDING OR FULL DITCHES THOUGH.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SATURDAY. THEN,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST BEING SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY (MONDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY). THE LREF SHOWS A 50-80%
CHANCE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES BEING GREATER THAN 95 DEGREES ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTH OF I-74/DANVILLE. HOWEVER, SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE AREAS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL IL. THE HEAT INDICES AND ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE ABLE
TO ACHIEVE 90 DEGREES BECAUSE OF THE ADDITIONAL RAIN/CLOUD COVER.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO COOL BACK OFF WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING 24 HOURS AS A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED OVER THE
AREA. IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
TOO ISOLATED FOR MENTION IN TAFS, HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS
COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MO SHOULD MIGRATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
KSPI AND KDEC FROM AROUND 8-12Z. AFTER 16Z-18Z, PROBABILITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS
WHILE MVFR CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR UNTIL ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IN THE EVENING BRINGS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WORTHY OF A PROB30 MENTION ALONG THE I-72 TERMINALS KSPI-KDEC-
KCMI. WINDS GENERALLY E 3-6 KTS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING S-SW 4-7
KTS BY 15Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...37
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page