006
FXUS63 KILX 072258
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
558 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL PEAK AT OR
ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS ALL OR PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR STORMS IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA TO NEBRASKA WILL
SAG SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WISCONSIN AND IOWA. A FEW OF THESE CELLS COULD POTENTIALLY
SPILL INTO THE N/NW KILX CWA IN A WEAKENING PHASE FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE
POPS (20-30%) ALONG/NORTH OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE
ACCORDINGLY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY,
BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND
STALL ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. A WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, WITH JUST A SLIM CHANCE (20%) FOR A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
TRAILING END OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN TRACK E/SE
TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS
STILL WIDE VARIATION AMONG THE 12Z MODELS WITH THE FV-3/RRFS
BOTH FOCUSING CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN...AND
THE HRRR/ECMWF/ICON FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION OVER
EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z SUN. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE
NOT YET FULLY SETTLED, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WILL IMPACT AT LEAST PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE
THEREFORE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS (40-50%) ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-72
CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE ANY
MORNING STORMS DEPART, THE AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGELY DRY AND
DECIDEDLY MORE HUMID AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES,
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EVEN HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING SHUNTS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE KILX
CWA FROM NORTHERN IOWA ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WILL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION AS MESOSCALE DETAILS
BECOME FINE-TUNED, BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS BOTH DAYS WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105 DEGREES).
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH PERHAPS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BLOSSOM ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, PROVIDING ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WITH
HIGH POPS (60-80%).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH CIRRUS TONIGHT
AND DIURNAL CU ON SATURDAY. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER EASTERN
IA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL IL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING, LEAVING JUST HIGH CLOUDS IN PLACE. A
WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING, VEERING WINDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST, ALL UNDER 10 KT.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...BARNES
DISCUSSION...BARNES
AVIATION...25
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