093
FXUS63 KILX 101748
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1248 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED TODAY; HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES NEAR 100
DEGREES, THOUGH LINGERING ANVIL DEBRIS AND UPPER-LEVEL
WILDFIRE SMOKE INTRODUCE MINOR TEMPERATURE UNCERTAINTY.
- SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS
CONDITIONAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND A LOCALIZED TORNADO RISK MAY EVOLVE
IF OUR CAPPED ENVIRONMENT BREAKS.
- HIGHER-CONFIDENCE, HIGH-END SEVERE POTENTIAL DEVELOPS BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY NEAR THE I-80 AND I-74 CORRIDORS WHERE EXTREME
WIND GUSTS (70+ MPH) ARE PLAUSIBLE.
- ACTIVE "RING-OF-FIRE" PATTERN MAINTAINS PERIODIC SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD DESPITE
OCCASIONAL PASSING CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS, THOUGH COULD BECOME VARIABLE SHOULD
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER A REGIONAL TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. ULTIMATELY, THIS POSSIBILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND AMENDMENTS
WILL BE MADE AS NEEDED.
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER --THOUGH STILL LOW-- PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS EVENING. THIS HAS BEEN COVERED BY A
BLANKET PROB30 GROUP FOR -TSRA PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 04Z-12Z.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
A BKN-OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK AT AROUND 15,000FT CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW BREAKS HAVE FORMED IN THE OVERCAST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU AT AROUND 2500FT TO DEVELOP AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER/STORM, IT APPEARS THE
EMPHASIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE A CU-FIELD
HAS ALREADY FORMED. MOST CAMS KEEP THIS ACTIVITY WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS, SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE TAFS
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A CLUSTER
OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
LATE TONIGHT, THEN TRACK E/SE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY
MORNING. WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY, IT APPEARS THE MAIN THRUST
OF THE STORMS WILL STAY ALONG I-80. HOWEVER, THE TRAILING END OF
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GRAZE THE I-74 CORRIDOR. AS SUCH,
HAVE INCLUDED A PROP30 GROUP FOR THUNDER BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AT
KPIA. KBMI/KCMI MAY POSSIBLY BE IMPACTED AS WELL, BUT THAT WOULD
BE AFTER 18Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ040-047>052-
061>063-066>068-071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...MJA
DISCUSSION...MJA
AVIATION...BARNES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page