884
FXUS63 KILX 141456
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
956 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TODAY IS SHIFTING FURTHER
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS, AND NEW FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA FROM THE SPC.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND EACH AFTERNOON, IN AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-72. THE
HEAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING, WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS OF -75C AROUND
LINCOLN. 24-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES WERE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
AROUND DANVILLE, THEN SOUTHWARD FROM THERE TO I-70. SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES TO RAIN TRENDS WERE NEEDED EARLIER THIS MORNING, AS CAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AND DID NOT REALLY SHOW ANYTHING
HAPPENING CLOSER TO I-72 THIS MORNING. HRRR IS STARTING TO CATCH
UP AND SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 10 AM, BUT A NEW WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED FURTHER SOUTH
INTO MID AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR A NEW
WATCH FOR OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEXT EXPECTED MCS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS HAVE ENTERED THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
STILL QUITE UNSTABLE AND AS THESE STORMS PUSH SOUTH, THEY SHOULD
MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER CAPE VALUES. EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IS
AROUND 45 KNOTS AS OF THE MOST RECENT MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC WHERE
THE STORMS ARE LOCATED. DAMAGING WINDS IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS, BUT SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN
PLACE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA FROM THE SPC.
ALONG WITH THE SEVERE RISK, WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED FOR SOME FLOODING.
THERE IS A FLOOD WATCH OUT UNTIL 15Z THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE AROUND
2-2.2 INCHES. WE HAVE BEEN QUITE SATURATED AS OF LATE. SOME AREAS
CANNOT TAKE MUCH MORE WITHOUT BECOMING INUNDATED. ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-74, THE FFG IS MUCH LOWER (6 HR: 2-2.5 INCHES, 3 HR: 1-2.5 INCHES)
THAN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, SINCE THEY HAVE RECEIVED MUCH
OF THE RAIN IN THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE AREA AROUND I-74 TO DANVILLE
HAS GOTTEN ~2-5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS BASED OFF OF
MRMS ESTIMATES. WPC HAS PUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN A MODERATE
RISK ERO TODAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT AS WE MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCOTT COUNTY TO CLARK COUNTY (AND SOUTH) THAT
IS VALID THROUGH SUNDAY. FURTHER EXPANSION NORTH OF THE
ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO FORWARD IN TIME AND GET A BETTER
GRASP OF HOW THE NEXT FEW ROUNDS OF MCS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE,
BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. HEAT INDICES OF 100-110 DEGREES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT HOW FAR NORTH THESE HEAT
INDICES GET WILL DEPEND SOLELY ON THE CONVECTION.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN TOMORROW AREA-WIDE
AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A SCHUYLER TO MCLEAN COUNTY
LINE WITH A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS WE GET NEWER RUNS OF THE MODELS.
NEXT WEEK MAY BRING US A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER AND THE HEAT
BRIEFLY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTING UP
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY / GREAT LAKES REGION BY
MONDAY, BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
IL DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY INTO MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S FOR HIGHS AND
60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE AT KPIA-KBMI AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING, THEN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF TSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING, WITH
BOUTS IF IFR-LIFR UNDER THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT (AND AT TIMES, VARIABLE)
WINDS. THE NEXT COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, MAINLY AFFECTING PIA AND BMI WITHIN THE 12Z PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ042>046-
053>057-062-063.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ILZ049>052-061>063-
066>068-071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
UPDATE...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...COPPLE
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