019
FXUS63 KILX 162324
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
624 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL IL IN A
CORRIDOR FROM CHAMPAIGN TO VERMILION COUNTY DUE TO 4 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY AND ADDITIONAL RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS LINE
AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A
RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
- COOLER AND LESS ACTIVE WEATHER IS ON DECK FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR DECATUR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HRRR MODEL HAS
FINALLY CAUGHT ONTO IT AND BASED ON THE CONTINUED COLD CLOUD
TOPS ON SATELLITE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF IT (SBCAPE
OVER 4000 AND MLCAPE OVER 2500) BELIEVE THIS CLUSTER WILL KEEP
GOING AND WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE.
BESIDES THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN NORTHWEST OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN IL AND
THAT WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. AIRMASS BEHIND THE
CURRENT CLUSTER HAS STABILIZED SOME AND THINK THAT CHANCES OF
CONVECTION IN WEST CENTRAL IL MAY NOT BE AS HIGH. CURRENT
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS IN EASTERN
IL AND THIS COULD GET SCOURED OUT AS WELL ONCE THIS CLUSTER
MOVES INTO IN. THOUGH AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE AT THE
MOMENT, SOME RECOVER IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH ALL THE CLOUD-FREE
SKIES BACK IN MO. SO WILL KEEP EVENING CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH ONLY LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO PARIS
LINE. IF RECOVERY DOES NOT OCCUR, THESE COULD BE PULLED BACK.
THE EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AS A REMNANT MCV FROM NORTHWEST MO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AS WELL AND AFFECT AREAS WHERE THE SPC
SLIGHT RISK IS LOCATED AT. THIS REASONING IS THE SUPPORT FOR THE
HIGHER POPS IN THE FORECAST, MENTIONED EARLIER.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER AND THE HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH IL. TEMPERATURES STARTING
MONDAY INTO MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
70S TO 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS RE-ENTER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WEST OF I-55, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT. THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST INTO
THE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING
WITH WEST WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED COVERAGE AND GRADUALLY DECREASING
INSTABILITY RESULT IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER ON STATION, BUT
HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 FOR SHOWERS. IF CONFIDENCE IN TSRA
GROWS, MAY HAVE TO CONVERT SOME SITES TO A TEMPO FOR STORMS. AS
PRECIP ENDS OVERNIGHT, A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ066>068-
071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...AUTEN
DISCUSSION...AUTEN
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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