682
FXUS63 KILX 191945
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
245 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOUTHEAST OF THE IL
RIVER. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS IN PLAY TODAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS POSTED UNTIL 1 AM
TONIGHT FROM FULTON TO MACON TO VERMILION COUNTIES NORTH WHERE
1-2 INCHES AND LOCALLY 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
- A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS IN CHECK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
WE CONTINUED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 AM TONIGHT FROM FULTON,
MASON, MENARD, LOGAN, MACON, PIATT, CHAMPAIGN AND VERMILION
COUNTIES NORTH. SOME AREAS COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
EARLY OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL IL WITH POCKETS OF 2-4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. PWATS ARE IN THE 1.6-2 INCH RANGE OVER CWA (HIGHEST
OVER SOUTHERN CWA) AND SUPPORTS HEAVY RAIN THREAT NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. PARTS OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA HAS ALREADY SEEN 5-10
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE LAST SUNDAY AUG 9TH.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL TROF
FROM SOUTHERN FULTON COUNTY INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF MCLEAN AND
FORD COUNTY. HAD A RECENT REPORT AND PHOTO OF A FUNNEL CLOUDS IN
BLOOMINGTON AND GALVA (SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY). MODERATELY
UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER CWA WITH SB CAPES OF 2-3K J/KG,
AND HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN/NW CWA. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE AT MODERATE LEVELS TOO FROM 35-45 KTS OVER CWA AND HIGHEST
OVER SOUTHERN/SW CWA. A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN/NW IL WILL PUSH
SE THRU CWA DURING TONIGHT, WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROF
OVER WESTERN IOWA TRACKS SE THROUGH IL DURING TONIGHT. THIS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL AIR MASS TO LIKELY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HAS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CWA FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WHILE TORNADO THREAT IS OVER SOUTHERN IL SOUTH OF
CWA THOUGH A FEW MORE FUNNELS MAY OCCUR ALONG WEAK TROF OVER
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH 00Z/7 PM.
QUIETER WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND THU NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT NEARING THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNRISE THU PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
KY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THU WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHED IL ON FRIDAY
BRINGING 20-40% CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN CWA FRI
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL IL FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FRI
EVENING. SPC KEEPS SEVERE RISK WEST NW OF IL ON FRI WITH SLIGHT
RISK OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SNEAKING UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
BY FRI AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH JUST
SLIGHT POPS AT TIMES WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH IL EARLY SATURDAY AND BRINGING IN
LESS HUMID AIR DURING THIS WEEKEND. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F SUNDAY NIGHT
MAKING FOR MORE COMFORTABLE NIGHTS AHEAD. HIGHS SAT 80-85
(WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST IL) AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY.
STILL PRETTY NOT MUCH WEATHER EXPECTED INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO MORE
SUMMERLIKE READINGS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
SE OF THE IL RIVER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE OF IFR CONDTIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVIER RAINS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WEAK EAST/WEST TROF
WAS JUST SOUTH OF PIA AND NEAR BMI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
EAST TO NE WINDS NEAR 5 KTS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SOUTH TO
SW WINDS NEAR 5 KTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MAIN COLD FRONT OVER
NORTHERN IL TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY/PIA LATE
AFTERNOON AND THRU REST OF CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING,
KEEPING CONVECTION CHANCES GOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WE HAVE MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FROM PATCHY FOG
AFTER THE CONVECTION CHANCES END. WINDS TO STAY FAIRLY LIGHT
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER 10 KTS AND VEER NE DURING TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
041>046-048-053.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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