847
FXUS63 KILX 211751
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1251 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTH OF A LINE FROM BEARDSTOWN TO LINCOLN
TO GIBSON CITY. HAIL (15%), WIND (15%), AND TORNADO (2%)
THREATS WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES
FURTHER SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK
COLD FRONT TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WITH CAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG AND SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS, SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME
DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN IL/EASTERN IA EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SPC HAS CENTRAL IL IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BEARDSTOWN TO LINCOLN TO GIBSON CITY. HAIL (15%), WIND (15%),
AND TORNADO (2%) THREATS WILL EXIST IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
FURTHER SOUTH A MARGINAL RISK EXISTS...NORTH OF A LINE FROM
EFFINGHAM TO DANVILLE, WITH MAINLY LOW END HAIL/WIND (5%) THREATS
FOR THIS EVENING IN THIS AREA.
LATE TONIGHT, STORMS WILL LIKELY WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE MODELS HAVE AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL IL ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY IS AT 10% OR LESS, SO DID NOT INCLUDE
IT IN THE FORECAST. LEAVING OUT THUNDER FOR SATURDAY MATCHES
SPC'S GUIDANCE AS WELL.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO THE AREA. BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A DRIER PATTERN ALONG
WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNSET ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS
CLOUDS 3-5K FT AND SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT OVER
NW WI INTO CENTRAL IOWA TO TRACK SE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE EVENING AND PASS SOUTH OF I-72 DURING OVERNIGHT. HAVE A 2-4
HOUR PERIOD OF PROB30 TSRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT PIA
STARTING AT 01-02Z, BMI AT 02-03Z AND ALONG I-72 AT 04-05Z.
SW WINDS 4-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO SWITCH WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS SAT MORNING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...KNUTSVIG
DISCUSSION...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...07/KNUTSVIG
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