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FXUS63 KILX 221705
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1205 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IL
FROM 3-8 PM TODAY. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY, A STRONG
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THEY
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WHAT'S LEFT OF THE
STORMS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-70 BY 4 AM. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE FOR TODAY. WE'LL SEE LOWER 500 MB
HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. REGARDING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TODAY, THE HREF
MEAN HAS 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL IL BY MIDDAY...
WITH SOME MODELS TEASING OF A LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING EAST
TO WEST FROM DANVILLE TO LINCOLN BY 5 PM. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS MOVING SOUTH FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM ACROSS
EAST- CENTRAL IL. SPC JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER IN THIS
AREA...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PWATS ARE RATHER LOW,
1-1.25 INCHES, FAVORING A RATHER ISOLATED STORM SETUP. WITH
30KTS OF DEEP SHEAR AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT, A STRONG TO NEAR-
SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT, DESPITE THE DRIER AIR. TONIGHT,
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA, BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
FOR THE WORK WEEK, EXPECT COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT
THE FRONT OF THE WEEK GIVE WAY TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WE'LL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WED-
THU. PRECIPITATION LOOKS RATHER LIMITED DUE TO THE PATTERN.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CHANCES SHOWING UP AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOMETHING
MORE ORGANIZED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. WE'LL SEE IF
THIS GAINS TRACTION IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
BEFORE SUNSET. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH ODDS OF OCCURRENCE ARE ONLY AROUND 10-15% AND
PRECLUDE ANY MENTION AT THE TERMINALS RIGHT NOW.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...KNUTSVIG
DISCUSSION...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GEELHART
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