419
FXUS63 KILX 222346
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
646 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK,
WITH THE PRIMARY CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AROUND MID WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
CREEPING UPWARD A BIT THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SURFACE CAPE'S IN THAT
AREA ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY LOW.
BETWEEN THAT AND DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S, ANY
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES. THE DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF PLEASANT
NIGHTS, WITH LOWS AROUND 60 TONIGHT AND MID-UPPER 50S SUNDAY
NIGHT.
THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FAVOR
A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE MIDWEST, WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
HEAT OR MOISTURE SURGES AT BAY. THE MOST INTERESTING FEATURE OF
NOTE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST AROUND MID WEEK. WITH
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, RAIN
CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH WILL BE MORE QUESTIONABLE, WITH 20-30%
CHANCES MAINLY CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES CREEP
UPWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S BY MID WEEK, WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO GET THE HEAT INDEX TO AROUND 90 IN A
FEW PLACES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
MINIMAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GUST FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH SPI IN THE NEXT HOUR WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT TO
030 WITH GUSTS TO 18KT. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS NORTHWEST WINDS DROP BELOW 10KT
TOWARD SUNSET. A STRAY SHOWER WILL PASS DEC AND COULD STILL
BUBBLE UP NEAR SPI EARLY THIS EVE. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE QUITE
LOW FOR WET TRAVEL SURFACES AT EITHER AIRPORT. NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TOMORROW FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY IN THE 6 TO 10KT
RANGE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...GEELHART
DISCUSSION...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON
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