681
FXUS63 KILX 230735
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
235 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES MIDWEEK. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ACHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
US. NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP SEASONAL
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK.
BY MIDWEEK, A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE MIDWEST STATES. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH STEADY MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MODERATELY
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT INVERTED-V T/TD PROFILES
WITH A LARGE AREA OF CAPE ATOP OF THAT. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE
IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY, BUT WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LATER THIS WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY
SPARK OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS, THOUGH MOST WILL STAY DRY. LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE DEFINED WAVE/FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOMETIME LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD TO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND UNDER 10
KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, THEN
WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS
SUNDAY NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AN OFF CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG THAT
REDUCES VISIBILITY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
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