571
FXUS63 KILX 231037
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
537 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES MIDWEEK. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ACHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
US. NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP SEASONAL
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK.
BY MIDWEEK, A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE MIDWEST STATES. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH STEADY MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MODERATELY
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT INVERTED-V T/TD PROFILES
WITH A LARGE AREA OF CAPE ATOP OF THAT. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE
IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY, BUT WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LATER THIS WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY
SPARK OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS, THOUGH MOST WILL STAY DRY. LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE DEFINED WAVE/FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOMETIME LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN FROM THE WEST. RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS FOG DEVELOPING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IL. ADDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR VISBY REDUCTIONS FROM 09-12Z AT ALL AIRFIELDS.
FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TO FURTHER REFINE THINGS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...NMA
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