940
FXUS63 KILX 231745
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
US. NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP SEASONAL
AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK.
BY MIDWEEK, A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE MIDWEST STATES. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH STEADY MOISTURE RETURN SENDING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MODERATELY
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT INVERTED-V T/TD PROFILES
WITH A LARGE AREA OF CAPE ATOP OF THAT. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE
IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY, BUT WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
UPPER FORCING WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH, A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LATER THIS WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY
SPARK OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS, THOUGH MOST WILL STAY DRY. LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE DEFINED WAVE/FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOMETIME LATER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
END OF THE MONTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS
THROUGH 18Z/1 PM MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF ANY PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. HREF HAS ONLY A 15-30% CHANCE
OF VISIBILITIES GETTING TO 5 MILES OR LESS FROM 09Z-14Z OVER
CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS. BEST CHANCES OF FOG WILL BE NEAR THE RIVER
VALLEYS AND LOW LYING RURAL AREAS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 4-6K FT THIS AFTERNOON
TO DISSIPATE AT SUNSET AND COULD REAPPEAR AFTER 16Z MON. WEAK
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MO AND RIDGING INTO
CENTRAL IOWA AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY, TO DRIFT OVER THE
CENTRAL OH RIVER VALLEY MONDAY MORNING WHILE RIDGING BACK INTO
NORTHEAST IL. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON (ISOLATED GUSTS
TO 15 KTS EARLY LIKE AT DEC) TO DIMINISHING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY MORNING
AND COULD BE VARIABLE DIRECTION YET WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NEARBY.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...07
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