813
FXUS63 KILX 241717
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1217 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
UPPER ANALYSIS HAS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY POSITIONED UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND A
CLOSED LOW IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 AM HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RANGING FROM 0 TO A COUPLE
DEGREES. BECAUSE OF THIS, PATCHY LOW LYING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, SEASONAL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
BY WEDNESDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, SENDING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH ILLINOIS. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH STEADY MOISTURE RETURN BRINGING DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONALLY STRONG
SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS NEAREST TO THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
INVERTED-V T/TD PROFILES, IMPLYING EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD RAPIDLY
SEND PARCELS TOWARD THE SURFACE AND LOCALLY INCREASE WINDS. A
CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY, BUT WILL ERODE
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR
NORTH, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK,
TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
RIPPLING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW MAY SPARK OCCASIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH MOST WILL STAY DRY. LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE DEFINED WAVE/FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
STATES SOMETIME BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH COULD BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THEN TURN WARMER LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NBM SHOWING UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREE HIGHS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY COULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 08Z-12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE REMAIN TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...MJA
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