253
FXUS63 KILX 271025
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
525 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COMFORTABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN OCCLUDED LOW CENTERED
OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND ARCHING BACK WESTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER THE PLAINS STATES/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL EXPAND EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST STATES TODAY, KEEPING THINGS COMFORTABLE AND DRY THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S, WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING NOTED OVER THE WESTERN US LATE THIS WEEK WILL
SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND, RAISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO AROUND 590-594
DM BY SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING A BIG
PUSH OF A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX HAS HIGH VALUES (0.8-0.9) PAIRED
WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS OF 1, IMPLYING THERE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AN ANOMALOUS LATE SUMMER HEAT EVENT OCCURING.
ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE OUT OF REACH, RECORD
WARM LOWS IN THE 70S COULD BE TIED OR BROKEN DURING THIS
STRETCH.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM
THE NORTHWEST US INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SENDING A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PLAINS
STATES INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF HERE, IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEPTH AND
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. AS OF NOW, THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CLIPPING NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST
TODAY. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON, SKC SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VISBY
REDUCTIONS ADDED AT ALL AIRFIELDS BETWEEN 09-12Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...NMA
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