277
FXUS63 KILX 281140
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
640 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COMFORTABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, STARTING SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL IL ALLOWED IDEAL VIEWING OF
THE PARTIAL LUNAR ECLIPSE LATE THURSDAY EVENING, PEAKING AT OR
JUST AFTER 1112 PM CDT WITH 90-96% OF THE MOON COVERED BY
EARTH'S SHADOW.
CURRENTLY SOME CLOUDS WHERE OVER NORTHEAST IL/NW INDIANA AND
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR
RIVERS/WATERWAYS AND RURAL LOW LYING AREAS THAT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE, WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN EASTERN IL AND FROM LINCOLN
NORTH. PATCHY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TODAY AS 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING SW INTO IL. SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SO FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE WEATHER WE HAD YESTERDAY. FAIR SKIES TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP DURING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INDIANA
BORDER/WABASH RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND STILL RIDGING BACK INTO IN AND EASTERN IL
ON SATURDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING OVER THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO WI/IA ON SATURDAY TO KEEP ITS
CONVECTION CHANCES NORTH OF CWA SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT (I-88
AND NORTH), THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE WEST
DURING SATURDAY AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS
SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WARMEST FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
ROBINSON SW. DEWPOINTS ON SATURDAY SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING NE INTO IL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TO
BRING HOT AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. INCREASING CAP FROM STRONG 500 MB RIDGE
SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO MAINLY NORTHERN IL AND AREAS NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN WX STORY WILL BE THE HEAT. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
MONDAY AND MID 90S MORE COMMON TUE-THU WITH EVEN UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE SW CWA. NBM STILL HAS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S LATE
NEXT WEEK (FRI/SAT) FOR START OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MORE HUMID
CONDTIONS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES MON AFTERNOON 95-100F (HIGHEST OVER
WESTERN CWA) AND 100-105F TUESDAY-THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE RIDING
OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PASS NW/NORTH OF CENTRAL IL MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN IL. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER KNOX, STARK AND
MARSHALL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES NORTH OF AREA DURING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING
AND NBM HAS 20-30% POPS OVER NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. OVERALL THOUGH IT APPEARS BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WILL STAY NORTH OF CENTRAL IL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
THE STRONG 593-595 DECAMETER 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS
TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST/SW LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH A NW UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER IL. THIS MAY ALLOW BETTER CHANCE OF
DISTURBANCES TRACKING SE NEAR CENTRAL IL AND BRINGING A CHANCE
OF CONVECTION TO CENTRAL/NE IL, THOUGH NBM POPS STILL ONLY 20%
AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF CWA.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP
4-10TH SHOWS 60-70% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER IL
AND PRECIPITATION TRENDING NEAR NORMAL. SO THE HEAT WAVE SETTING
UP NEXT WEEK MAY LINGER LONGER, AT LEAST THROUGH LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
ATMOSPHERIC RIDGING AND EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS
THROUGHOUT TODAY.
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 0.5 KFT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE.
WHILE THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO GENERAL AVIATION, IT WILL
AFFECT PILOTS FLYING MORE SENSITIVE AIRCRAFT (HOT AIR BALLOONS,
DRONES, ETC).
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...MJA
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