243
FXUS63 KILX 011124
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
624 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105+ DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES AND MAY ALSO
REACH THAT LEVEL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF
CONVECTION CHANCES HOLD OFF. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH SATURDAY, WILL LOWER A
BIT INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE LATE SEASON HEAT
WAVE WITH STRONG 594-596 DECAMETER 500 MB HIGH OVER THE TN
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL DURING MID WEEK. WILL
LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PEAK FROM 100-105F THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH 20-40% CHANCE OF SEEING HEAT INDICES PEAK
ABOVE 105F TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY THROUGH FRI WITH AREAS FROM SPRINGFIELD TO ROBINSON SW
NEAR 100F. SPRINGFIELD ALREADY REACHED 97F YESTERDAY AND ONLY 2
DEGREES FROM THE RECORD HIGH OF 99F. WE POSTED RECORD HIGHS IN
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR TODAY THROUGH THU. WE CONTINUED
THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS CWA TODAY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON, BUT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IT INTO FRIDAY OR EVEN SATURDAY IF
CONVECTION HOLDS OFF AND HAVE LESS CLOUD COVER.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER PARTS OF IOWA AND WI INTO
THU TO KEEP IL IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH HOT HUMID TROPICAL AIR
MASS STAYING IN PLACE. CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR TO STAY NORTH
OF I-80 THROUGH WED NIGHT, THEN HAVE 20-40% POPS OVER NORTHERN
IL JUST NORTH OF CWA ON THU AS A SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. SPC DAY3 OUTLOOK HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR WIND
AND HAIL FOR LATE THU/THU NIGHT NE OF A CANTON TO LINCOLN TO TERRE
HAUTE LINE. WE HAVE GOOD INSTABILITY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH
BEST FORCING AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE NE OF CWA. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER NE CWA AND EASTERN
IL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY,
THOUGH THE BRUNT OF ITS CONVECTION APPEARS TO PASS NORTH OF CENTRAL
IL. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES SE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND IL DURING
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES
BACK INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, PUTTING IL IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD SLIP THROUGH CENTRAL IL BY
SUNDAY AND MAY BRING 20-30% CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING (HIGHEST POPS SAT NIGHT). HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, TO COOL A BIT INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH STILL A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP
8-14TH 50-55% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IL WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.
ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS ARE HIGH FEW CIRRUS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 10KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY AND THEN LIGHTEN A FEW
KNOTS THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK:
LOCATION TUE 9/1 WED 9/2 THU 9/3
======== ======== ======== ========
BLOOMINGTON 102/1894 101/2011 102/1913
CHAMPAIGN 102/2011 101/2011 99/2011
CHARLESTON 99/2011 103/1953 100/1925
DANVILLE 101/1953 101/1953 99/1913
DECATUR 102/1953 102/1953 102/1913
JACKSONVILLE 103/1913 103/2011 101/2011
LINCOLN 102/1953 101/1953 100/1913
OLNEY 105/1953 106/1953 105/1925
PARIS 101/1953 102/1953 101/1913
PEORIA 101/1913 100/1913 99/1913
SPRINGFIELD 102/2011 101/2011 100/2011
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ027>029-036-037-
040>044-047>056-061>063-066>068-071>073.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR ILZ030-031-038-045-046-057.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...AUTEN
CLIMATE...07/GEELHART
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