508
FXUS63 KILX 021704
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1204 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES THIS WEEK: HIGHS REACHING THE
MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL COMBINE WITH LINGERING
HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 110 DEGREES
THROUGH SATURDAY. HREF HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (30-50%) FOR
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT FOCUS FROM SPRINGFIELD TO ROBINSON
SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED STORM THREAT: A LOW PROBABILITY (LESS THAN 20%)
EXISTS THURSDAY FOR AN ISOLATED POP-UP AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORM. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE
SPARSE, STRONG INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM WITH LOCALIZED WIND OR HAIL IMPACTS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF I-74 ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED CHANCES LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE LATE SEASON HEAT
WAVE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, AS STRONG 594-596 DAM 500 MB
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE TN AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY
NEAR CENTRAL IL. HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100F AND AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES 100-110F AND HIGHEST TODAY AND THU. SW WINDS A BIT
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIGHTER WINDS THU AND FRI TO 10 MPH OR
LESS TO PROVIDE LESS RELIEF FROM THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HAVE
A LIST OF RECORD HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY LISTED BELOW. EXTENDED
THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH 7 PM
FRIDAY. MAY NEED TO GO INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SW OF
I-74 WHEN HEAT INDICES COULD STILL REACH 100-105F. EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR SOUTHERN IL SOUTH OF CWA AND OVER NW IL
INTO THE QUAD CITIES AREA.
MCS'S OVER NW IOWA AND CENTRAL WI WITH BRUNT OF ITS CONVECTION
TO STAY NORTH OF CENTRAL IL TODAY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS AT 06Z AND 07Z SHOW VERY ISOLATED CELLS FROM
I-74 NE FROM 20Z/3 PM TO 00Z/7 PM. COVERAGE IS 10% OR LESS AND
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR CENTRAL IL TODAY. HRRR 06Z RUN SHOWS
MORE ISOLATED CELLS APPEARING OVER MORE OF CENTRAL IL FROM MID
THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THU EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH COVERAGE
LESS THAN 20%. SPC DAY2 CONTINUE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
NE OF A CANTON TO LINCOLN TO PARIS LINE FOR WIND AND HAIL DUE TO
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MUCAPES 2-3K J/KG THU AFTERNOON FROM
MACOMB TO LINCOLN TO TERRE HAUTE NE WHILE BULK WIND SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS BY LATE THU AFTERNOON NE CWA.
ANOTHER MCS WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY LATE THU AFTERNOON TO TRACK SE OVER WI AND INTO NE IL
LATE THU EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. MOST MODELS KEEP THIS
CONVECTION NE OF CWA BUT WILL GET CLOSEST TO AREAS FROM PONTIAC
TO HOOPESTON LATE THU NIGHT INTO MID FRI MORNING. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THIS WEAKENING MCS DURING FRI MORNING COULD BE
NEAR NE CWA AND HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM MID FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION (20-40%)
ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN/NE CWA FROM MACOMB TO LINCOLN TO TERRE
HAUTE NORTH OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. THIS IS FROM AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHEAST THAT MOVES INTO AREA AROUND SATURDAY. THIS MAY
TEMPER THE HEAT A BIT OVER NE CWA ON SATURDAY WHILE SW CWA AND
SOUTHEAST IL WILL LIKELY STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 100-105 AND MAY NEED HEAT HEADLINE
EXTENDED INTO SAT AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND BUT RIDGING BACK INTO IL BY TUE SO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SUNDAY THROUGH TUE (MID 80S NE CWA ON
MON) AND TRENDING A BIT HOTTER FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 9-15TH
HAS 45-55% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
TRENDING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
CENTRAL ILLINOIS REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
RESULTING IN A MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BREEZE LOCALLY. SW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL DROP OFF BELOW 10 KT
AND BACK TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (AROUND
15%) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A FEW POP-UP STORMS OVER
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 440 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK:
LOCATION TUE 9/1 WED 9/2 THU 9/3 FRI 9/4
======== ======== ======== ======== ========
BLOOMINGTON... 102/1894 101/2011 102/1913 100/1925
CHAMPAIGN..... 102/2011 101/2011 99/2011 100/1954
CHARLESTON.... 99/2011 103/1953 100/1925 98/1925
DANVILLE...... 101/1953 101/1953 99/1913 101/1954
DECATUR....... 102/1953 102/1953 102/1913 103/1913
JACKSONVILLE.. 103/1913 103/2011 101/2011 103/1899
LINCOLN....... 102/1953 101/1953 100/1913 102/1954
OLNEY......... 105/1953 106/1953 105/1925 103/1954
PARIS......... 101/1953 102/1953 101/1913 104/1954
PEORIA........ 101/1913 100/1913 99/1913 98/2015
SPRINGFIELD... 102/2011 101/2011 100/2011 100/1954
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
KEY MESSAGES...07
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...DEUBELBEISS
CLIMATE...07/GEELHART
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