648
FXUS63 KILX 100645
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
145 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS WILL YIELD POCKETS OF 1 TO
3 INCH TOTALS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70, LEADING TO POTENTIAL
PONDING IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
- THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES
A 40-70% PROBABILITY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SEPTEMBER 15-19. NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF
YEAR IS IN THE LOW 80S AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AS THE LLJ INCREASED, CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF IL. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS AREA CAN LIKELY TAKE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN BEFORE
FLOODING BECOMES A MAJOR CONCERN. THE 6 HOUR FFG FOR THE SOUTHEAST
IS 3-5 INCHES AND 3 HR FFG IS 3-4 INCHES. PWATS IN THE AREA OF THE
STORMS IS 1.9-2.2 INCHES. LOCALIZED SWATHS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE (PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-70) AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE
HREF LPMM. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK ERO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-72. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THEN
ADDITIONAL LOW-END CHANCES EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NBM HAS BROAD BRUSHED 30-50% POPS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK STARTING TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ILLINOIS AND POTENTIALLY STALL OUT.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT
WEEK IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK
INDICATES A 40-70% PROBABILITY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH SEPTEMBER 19TH. NORMAL HIGHS
THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE LOW 80S AND NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CEILINGS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT,
INITIALLY FOCUSED ON AN AREA OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE
NORTHWEST OF KPIA. THIS AREA HAD DECENT RAINFALL ON THURSDAY,
AND AN EXPANSION OF STRATUS/FOG SHOULD RESULT AS SKIES INITIALLY
CLEAR. BY 12Z, MOST OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS SHOULD SEE CEILINGS IN
THE 1-2KFT RANGE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF IFR CEILINGS ARE HIGHEST
IN A NARROW WEST-EAST AXIS ACROSS KPIA/KBMI (50-70%), DIMINISHING
TO AROUND 40% FURTHER SOUTH FROM THERE. KPIA/KBMI MAY BE BACK
TO VFR CEILINGS AS EARLY AS 14-15Z, THOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TERMINALS TO SEE DECENT
IMPROVEMENT.
IN ADDITION, THE KSPI-KCMI CORRIDOR WILL BE MORE FAVORED FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH PROB30 MENTIONS FOR TSRA AT THESE SITES TIMED OVER THE MOST
FAVORED 3-HOUR PERIODS.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...COPPLE
DISCUSSION...COPPLE
AVIATION...GEELHART
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