199
FXUS63 KILX 120500
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW IMPACT WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK NEAR A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL. ALOFT, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING NORTHEAST NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TO EAST-
CENTRAL IL.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
OVER SD. AS THIS SHIFTS NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY, IT WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO IA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERMAL RIDGING BRINGS
ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN A WEST-EAST FASHION OVER CENTRAL IL
ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA, TO THE LOWER 90S
SOUTH OF I-70. THE FORECAST DOES CARRY LOW (20-30%) POPS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT, HOWEVER, LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE.
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. FARTHER NORTH, THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET WILL
SUPPLY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL IL FOR
SEVERAL DAYS, MOST LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE PROJECTED TO BE NOT AS
STRONG AS WHAT WE SAW DURING THE "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN AROUND A
MONTH AGO, IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE INGREDIENTS PRESENT FOR A
FEW ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER,
THOUGH ML/AI SEVERE OUTLOOKS GENERALLY POINT TO A 5% OR LESS
DAILY RISK. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVELY COOLED
OUTFLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT FLIRTING WITH DAILY AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES NEAR 100
DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST
LATER THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK, THEN BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE
FORECAST TO BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (<20%) FOR MVFR VISBY IF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS THIS
MORNING.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
KEY MESSAGES...25
DISCUSSION...25
AVIATION...NMA
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